YouGov Poll for Y Byd ar Bedwar - Updated

There was an interesting set of figures on last night's Y Byd ar Bedwar from a poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru. These are the three sections:

     

Performance of the Assembly

It's done a good job ... 46%
It's done a bad job ... 17%
It's been neither good nor bad ... 27%
 

Referendum voting intention

Yes ... 67%
No ... 33%
 

Best governance model for Wales

No Assembly ... 17%
Assembly with current powers ... 13%
Assembly with greater powers ... 35%
Assembly with law-making and tax-setting powers ... 11%
Full independence ... 6%

The complete results aren't yet available on the YouGov site, but I'll provide a link when they are. The Western Mail has a lot more detail here.

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These figures don't come as any surprise to me. I had reckoned the referendum vote would be 65% to 35% in favour of primary lawmaking powers. The question will be over the turnout, which I think will be between 35% and 40% ... but the bigger the turnout, the larger the Yes margin will be.

But the other figures are no surprise either. On the whole, people in Wales are happy with the Assembly, and very few would want to go back to the old days of a Secretary of State for Wales from the party that happened to be in power at Westminster making all the decisions that are now made by the elected Welsh government.

The reason we're being presented with a different picture in the media discussions and debates is because the people who want a No are, for the most part, in the small minority who are unhappy with the Assembly itself and what has done. But balance means that both sides are being presented as equal, even though that's very far from being the case in reality.

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The No campaign never amounted to much, but is now crumbling. We are seeing people who have appeared in television as representatives of True Wales urging people to abstain.

Paul Matthews  ABSTAIN ON THURSDAY! Let's deprive this "referendum" of any legitimacy - by securing an abysmal turnout - then start the campaign to ABOLISH THE ASSEMBLY on Friday!

I am opposed to the existence of the assembly. No ifs no buts. THE ONLY HONEST THING FOR ME TO DO IS ABSTAIN, in the absence of an "abolish the assembly" box on the ballot. I am not going to PRETEND I want to keep the status quo! ABSTAIN ON THURSDAY!

True Wales Supporters Club on Facebook

The only reason for this tactic is that they know they will lose, but want the turnout to be as low as possible in order to claim that those who didn't vote were in fact against the Assembly getting primary law-making powers. That was one of the reasons behind them not wanting to register as the official No Campaign, although the more immediate reason is that their support base is so small that they could not possibly afford to print the million or so leaflets that would then have been delivered for free.

I only hope that by exposing these charlatans in the No campaign for what they are, we encourage more people to vote on Thursday. A clear majority of us want a Yes vote, but we each have to get out and put pencil to ballot paper rather than stay at home and assume that all the other people who want a Yes vote will make the extra votes unnecessary.
 

 
Update - 10:40 2 March 2011

The full results are now on the YouGov site, here. It's particularly interesting to see that the 67% to 33% headline figure is weighted on likelihood to vote as well as, obviously, excluding the don't knows and won't votes.

In order to compare like with like, the best figures are those which show a margin of 49% to 26% in favour of a Yes, with 16% don't knows and 9% won't votes.
 

 
Update - 02:15 4 March 2011

I've just noticed that Paul Matthews has tried to cover his tracks by deleting the message he left on Facebook. But unfortunately for him, I made this archive copy of the page as it appeared on 1 March.

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11 comments:

Siônnyn said...

I have always thought that True Wales was never a credible No campaign - with no one of charisma, status, or real intellect to lead them.

I was overjoyed, therefore to see that the man we all feared, 'Dr No' - Tim Williams who has all of the above in bountiful abundance, and who did so much damage to us in 1997, coming out for a YES vote! Whatever one's view in 1997, the issue now is in ensuring Wales has a system of governance in which its problems can be addressed and solved.

He goes on to say:

"It seems to me that as the status quo ante 1997 cannot be restored and the current settlement does not give Wales the tools it needs to transform the country, the only serious option is to acquire those tools and powers. We have to go forward to a more self-governing Wales

Those who opt for the status quo or even hanker for an impossible return to the world before 1997 need to understand this. "

Good man!

Anonymous said...

Whose the bird on s4c? ;-)

MH said...

Bird? Are you trapped in time somewhere in the sixties, Anon? The presenter's name is Mai Davies.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't she stand in for J Mohammed at times? Didn't know she spoke Welsh. And what a lovely voice. Anyway, hope this poll is accurate.

Anonymous said...

True Wales Paul Matthews isn't a member of Facebook. The comment is either coincidence or mischief. A facebook search will confirm that.

Anonymous said...

Real votes in heartland areas suggest that Thursday's poll may well be touch and go. Turnout is vital here.

Barry said...

The bird on S4C? That would be Cyw.

Anonymous said...

"Real votes in heartland areas suggest that Thursday's poll may well be touch and go"...can you advise us on what firm evidence this claim is based?

yougov have consistently been showing a lead for the yes side of around twenty percent or more for a year now...so this last poll tends to confirm this trend....and if anything suggests the yes lead is growing as people make up their minds.

incidentally yougov polls proved very accurate during last year's british general election.

but an old cliche i know but it has to be repeated...the only poll that matters is on march 3rd.....so its vital that as many people on the yes side as possible turn out to vote...so that we can turn all these encouraging poll findings into actual votes on the day.

but there's no question this last poll will have demoralised the wales haters....resulting in many of them not even bothering to vote.....so possibly leading to an even bigger margin of victory than is currently being predicted. Their only option now is to do all they can to depress the turnout..so that they can challenge the validity of the result...not that they will succeed in this despicable aim. But these are politically bankrupt people who will do anything they can to try and thwart the will of the people of wales.

We cannot allow these wales haters to succeed and must still do all we can in the remaining 24 hours to persuade as many people as we can to vote yes!

Leigh Richards.

Anonymous said...

"On the whole, people in Wales are happy with the Assembly, and very few would want to go back to the old days of a Secretary of State for Wales from the party that happened to be in power at Westminster making all the decisions that are now made by the elected Welsh government."

And even fewer - yet again - would opt for independence.

KWD said...

Off-topic to the main discussion, but I too was surprised Mai Davies could speak Welsh, and as a Welsh learner I find her particularly easy to understand. To my inexpert ears she sounds less like a first-language Welsh speaker and more like a learner who's become fluent.

To the first-language speakers here, would I be wrong to assume that?

Anonymous said...

KWD,

That is the impression I had too. There's something different about the way she speaks Welsh.....in a very nice way though. I can't put my finer on it. Maybe she's from an English speaking home and then Welsh medium education? But she speaks it clearly as she does the English language. Yes a 'cyw bach del'.

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