Showing posts with label N-VA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label N-VA. Show all posts

A year without a Belgian Government

It has now been exactly a year since the Belgian Federal elections, but no federal government has yet been formed. In the early days I followed the negotiations with some sense of anticipation, and you can read some of the things I wrote in these posts. I still check up every week or so, but nothing now seems to be happening.

In a nutshell (and excluding the small German speaking community in Wallonia) Belgium is made up of two language communities and three regions: Dutch speaking Flanders, French speaking Wallonia and bi-lingual Brussels. The Flemish N-VA campaigned on the basis of fundamental reform of Belgium, giving more autonomy to the regions. They made a breakthrough in Flanders, becoming the biggest party there. In Wallonia the Parti Socialiste won most seats, wanting to keep Belgium as it is because Wallonia is less prosperous than Flanders and they fear they will lose out in any arrangement that gives the regions more autonomy. I think it's fair to say that Flanders and Wallonia would have gone their separate ways years ago had it not been for Brussels, which neither are willing to let go of.

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What you think of the negotiations and who is to blame for the impasse will depend on which region you're from. Although the N-VA want the eventual independence of Flanders, the other Flemish parties are not prepared to contemplate diluting the N-VA's demands for more autonomy in order to make a deal with the French speaking parties.

There are probably two reasons for this: first, that they want more autonomy too, although maybe not independence; but second, because public opinion in Flanders is not only still very firmly behind the N-VA, but in fact growing. No other party would turn their backs on a party that has far more public support than they do. It would be electoral suicide. These are the results of a poll from last week:

     

     Flemish Nationalists confirm their No 1 status – FlandersNews, 10 June 2011

Support for the N-VA has gone up by over five percentage points at the expense of all other parties except the Greens; and Bart De Wever, the N-VA leader, has a personal popularity rating of 53%. What's his secret? We in Plaid could do with some of it.

     

So what happens next? The BBC seems to think that there won't be new elections because it won't change anything. I'm not so sure. Something has to happen, and new election will provide an excuse for some compromise, even though the faces round the table might be exactly the same. The N-VA are in a position of strength, and so have nothing to fear from a new election. In fact it will probably further strengthen their hand.

Has the year been a waste of time? Well, probably not. The N-VA's stated position has been that they want to see Belgium "very gently disappear". Is there a better way of convincing others that the Federal government is irrelevant than to simply do without one for more than a year? The sky hasn't fallen on their heads. It's now too late to organize an election before summer, but I think there'll be one in autumn.

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Hergé's adventures in Belgium ... continued

Capten Hadog has just given me another update on the situation in Belgium over negotiations to form a federal government. Since Elio di Rupo of the Walloon Parti Socialiste gave up the role of preformateur, causing the talks to officially break down, the Belgian king appointed two "elder statesmen" from the two largest parties to sound things out on a less formal level and take the spotlight away from the two leaders in the hope of cooling things down.

At that time, and for the first time, the PS started talking openly about splitting Belgium. Not their favoured option by a long way, but what the francophone press started calling "Plan B". The "B" stood for Brussels, and the idea was that they would be happy for the Flanders region to become a separate state provided they left Brussels to Wallonia. Needless to say, this wasn't really taken seriously by the Flemings ... and it since seems to have died a quiet death.

The Flemings were non-plussed with this for the fairly obvious reason that the Brussels region relies on more money from the federal coffers than it contributes (that's why the the PS wanted an additional €500m a year for Brussels) and Wallonia also receives more than it contributes. Although I'm sure he wouldn't actually say it out loud, I can imagine Bart De Wever thinking, "Go on, make my day."

     

Since then Di Rupo and De Wever have resumed talks. They don't have any real choice but to deal with each other, since the opinion polls show that both leaders are supported by a very large percentage of their respective communities. But these talks haven't been pleasant. The PS was talking of "perjury" and the N-VA talking about the PS wanting to survive on "pocket money" from the federal government. But the important thing is that they're talking again ... even if only just. Here are a couple of reports:

     Open war between PS and N-VA
     Two biggest parties at loggerheads

There was one piece of very disturbing news yesterday. The Speaker of the Flemish Parliament, Jan Peumans, was beaten up in Wallonia. But I sincerely hope (and have no reason to believe otherwise) that this was just an isolated incident. There is no civil unrest and no demonstrations in the streets.

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I'm not too pessimistic. Talk about constitutional principles isn't too difficult; things only start to get heated when money is at stake. It's hard to make out what the detailed figures they're haggling over might be. Belgium, like the UK, is a state where all except local taxation goes into a central federal treasury, and is then distributed to the three regions. I've heard rumours that the PS are talking about that being reduced to 85%, with 15% being set and retained by the regions from which the tax was collected. The N-VA would be looking for something much more like a 50%-50% split. No prizes for guessing that they'll probably meet somewhere in the middle. But the devil is in the detail: what percentage of which particular taxes ... and for that a lot of financial geeks will be running computer models late into the night for the next few weeks.

The final outcome? If this was to be a one-off settlement I'd expect a 67%-33% split, but if it were linked to an agreed review every five years or so I think the N-VA might settle for something less. I'd emphasize that this is nothing more than my own feeling. I think the split of Brussels from Halle-Vilvoorde and additional money for Brussels is fairly certain, as these had essentially been agreed a fortnight or so ago; but for obvious reasons nobody will confirm this until there is a final agreement on finances.

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Finally, for those who might be asking why I keep posting on what is happening in Belgium and in Spain, it's for two reasons. First, because those of us who want independence for Wales and Scotland need to be aware that we are far from alone in wanting this for our countries. What we want is shared by people in Flanders, Catalunya and Euskadi.

But secondly, we need to be aware of the political processes by which we are going to get there. We have to look at what the particular issues that drive the desire for independence are, how support for that option or alternatives to it grows, how those who do not want a split react ... and, most importantly, what methods actually work and what methods don't work. By learning from what others in similar situations do, we'll make our own path to independence that much easier.

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Frieda Brepoels, the N-VA ... and Martin Shipton

Martin Shipton seems determined to stir up a row about Plaid inviting Frieda Brepoels to speak at our conference, but I'm pleased that we did. The N-VA promote an inclusive civic nationalism, as opposed to the exclusive race-based nationalism of many other parties, and that is reason enough to work with them as part of the Green-EFA group in the European Parliament even though they are a centre-right party.

     

But he certainly makes a surprising number of blatantly incorrect statements in his attempt. Let's look at some of the claims his article makes.

Recently the Wall Street Journal reported that the party, which is in power in the Flemish Parliament, had ordered libraries to stock at least 75% Flemish books, and was insisting that blood donation drives should be conducted among people who were mono-lingually Dutch.

This isn't true on two counts. First, the N-VA has only 16 members in the 124 member Flemish Parliament. The Christian Democrat CD&V, the Liberal Open VLD, Vlaams Belang (a far right nationalist party that does make race and religion an issue ... and probably the party Shipton was trying to confuse the N-VA with when he described it as "the controversial Flemish Nationalist party") and the Socialist SP.A each have more seats ... though that probably won't be the case after the next election. So whatever policies the Flemish Parliament has voted for have more to do with these parties than the N-VA.

But second, look at Martin Shipton's careful mangling of a sentence to give it a completely different meaning. The Wall Street Journal article says:

... blood drives to be monolingually Dutch

Martin Shipton alters it to:

... blood donation drives should be conducted among people who were mono-lingually Dutch

Nice try Martin, but you refer to a newspaper report, you should expect someone to check out whether or not you are distorting it. It's a reference to the language of the campaign, not that only mono-lingual Dutch speakers are encouraged, or allowed, to give blood.

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Now let's look at the claim of Bart De Wever:

... denying that people from Antwerp assisted in deporting Jews from Belgium during the Second World War.

Again, that's demonstrably wrong. He did exactly the opposite. He said that the authorities in Antwerp did assist the Nazis in that deportation, but that:

Antwerp did not organise the deportation of the Jews, it was the victim of Nazi occupation ... Those who were in power at the time had to take tricky decisions in difficult times. I don't find it very courageous to stigmatise them now.

Economist, 31 October 2007

So why on earth did Martin Shipton turn a statement about not being keen to blame the authorities in Antwerp for their role in the deportation into an outright denial that they had any involvement in it? Sloppy journalism, or another example of distortion?

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Now let's look at the claim made by Labour MEP Derek Vaughan on education:

What these right-wing separatists have to teach the people of Wales is a question worth asking? Are Plaid seriously thinking about replicating some of their domestic policies? The N-VA, for example, think that preferential choice in schooling should be given to Belgian families who have at least one Dutch-speaking parent.

Derek has jumped at his opportunity to take hold of the wrong end of the stick. The N-VA policy applies to Brussels, not the whole of Belgium. It is very difficult for people in the supposedly bilingual Brussels region to get their children educated in Dutch. The N-VA want at least those who have one parent who speaks Dutch to be able to insist that their child gets a Dutch-medium education. Strange that a Labour politician in Wales should criticize that, not least because we allow every parent, whether they speak Welsh or not, the right to choose a Welsh-medium education for their children. In due course, I'd like the same to be true in Brussels ... as, I'm sure, would the N-VA.

Our big problem is that some Local Authorities still make it very difficult for parents to exercise that choice without having to travel inordinately long distances to get it ... but we can't single out Labour in this respect, for the LibDems can be just as bad where they are in control. Swansea in particular.

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Now of course, since the N-VA are a centre-right party, you wouldn't expect someone like me to agree with all their policies. But for a balanced view of what Frieda Brepoels actually stands for, this article should be of some help.

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Finally, I've just taken some time to find out more on the question of Alexia Philippart de Foy being refused permission to buy a house in Flanders. The law in question is "Wonen in eigen streek" which means "Live in your own area". It applies to social housing and to new developments built on land that was in public ownership, for period of twenty years. In that sense, it is not unlike a planning condition. It does not apply to ordinary private sales of existing housing. There are three criteria by which someone would qualify:

•  6 years continuous residence in the municipality or an adjoining municipality;

•  At least a half-time job in the municipality;

•  Having family, social or economic ties with the community.

Any one of the three would be sufficient.

That does not strike me as being particularly unreasonable, and indeed it might be a model for protecting the character of an area. It doesn't seem so very different from these sort of criteria for the Lake District National Park Authority in England.

I should also remind people again that this law was passed by a 124 member Parliament in which the N-VA has only 16 seats. The policy was championed by CD&V, as we could read on this site if our Dutch were up to it, but can all read here. That doesn't mean to say that the N-VA doesn't agree with it, but that it is a policy broadly agreed by a majority of Flemish parties, not just the N-VA.

It's also worth noting that language is not one of the legal criteria, and that the CD&V spokesman cited problems with people from the Netherlands moving to the area around Antwerp, as well as the general problem of people from cities moving out to smaller surrounding communities, pushing up prices and making it harder for young local people to buy a home in their own community. It is primarily an issue of localism, not language.

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Yet of course language is one of the most noticeable casualties in certain situations, so I don't want to shy away from that subject. Personally, I think the idea of competing monolingualisms in Flanders and Wallonia has been a mistake. Bilingualism is a much better model, but it only officially applies to Brussels.

In fact, the language situation in Brussels is not so dissimilar to that in some parts of Wales. First, there has been language shift through which Flemings whose parents and grandparents spoke Dutch have lost the language because the language of administration was French; and second, there has recently been a high level of immigration from French speaking areas of Belgium, and they have been much more reluctant to learn Dutch than Dutch speakers have been to learn French. A third factor in Brussels is the high level of immigration from ex-colonial French speaking countries, which is not particularly mirrored in Wales.

But even though Brussels is officially bilingual, it is often very difficult to get any satisfactory provision of public services in Dutch, a situation which is exactly mirrored in many parts of supposedly bilingual Wales ... even 17 years after the Welsh Language Act. That is why initiatives such as the right to Dutch-medium education in Brussels, even if limited at first, are so important.

It is also (as I'm sure one or two readers of this blog might have noticed ;-) why I focus so much on us taking the steps we need to take in order to ensure that everyone who grows up in Wales is competent in both Welsh and English. I might berate how slowly we are moving to achieve this goal, but I am convinced that we in Wales—in a consensus shared by all parties and started before Plaid Cymru was ever part of government—have chosen a much better path than to draw a line and call one area Welsh-speaking and one area English-speaking.

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More on Flanders and the N-VA

I've been following the reaction to the Belgian election last Sunday, and been particularly disappointed by some of the presumptions made about the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance) in the UK media.

The general it seems that nationalism and the desire for a Flemish State are seen as racist and exclusive, and very few commentators here have been able to distinguish between the inclusive, civic nationalism of the N-VA and the exclusive, sometimes racist, nationalism of Vlaams Belang, whose share of the vote fell dramatically. They have linked the N-VA's success in Belgium with the rise (though only to 15% and third place, with the other parties refusing to work with them) of Geert Wilder's vehemently anti-Islamic Partij voor de Vrijheid in the Netherlands.

As a short illustration of how wrong that perception is, this is a short feature from the N-VA website:

Met de 28-jarige Nadia Sminate uit Londerzeel en de “Limburgse” Antwerpse Zuhal Demir (30) stuurt de N-VA voor het eerst in haar bestaan twee jonge leeuwen van allochtone origine naar de Kamer. Zuhal en Nadia zijn respectievelijk van Turks-Koerdische en Marokkaanse afkomst. Ze vinden in de N-VA een partij die gaat voor echte ipv bepamperende integratie en voor een streng maar rechtvaardig migratiebeleid. Zuhal wil zich als advocate in het parlement toeleggen op arbeidsmarktbeleid, net zoals Nadia die zich zal concentreren op de optimalisatie van de combinatie arbeid en gezin.

With the 28-year-old Nadia Sminate from Londerzeel and the "Limburg" Antwerper Zuhal Demir (30) the N-VA has for the first time sent two young lions of immigrant origin to the Chamber. Zuhal and Nadia are, respectively, of Turkish-Kurdish and Moroccan origin. In the N-VA they find a party that wants real integration instead of patronizing, and a firm but fair immigration policy. As a lawyer, Zuhal wants to focus on Labour Market Policies, while Nadia will concentrate on optimizing the balance between work and family life.

Highlights, 17 June 2010

I've relied heavily on Google for the translation, and would welcome any improvements. Perhaps I should also explain that one layer of the reference to "lions" is that the flag of Flanders is a black lion on a yellow background.

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As I said when the results came in, it will take some time for the shape of the new Belgian government to become clear. N-VA leader Bart De Wever has been appointed as the informateur charged with negotiating a working coalition. If it can command a two-thirds majority, it will be able to break the constitutional impasse that led to the dissolution of the previous parliament. The consensus view seems to be that Francophone socialist leader Elio Di Rupo will become Prime Minister, with Bart De Wever content to let that happen in return for constitutional reform.

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Slowly but surely, Belgium will very gently disappear

Some people are convinced that Belgium was only ever a hoax perpetrated by the "Liberati" as part of their plan for world domination ... and that any protest to the contrary was an obvious over-reaction which proved their point:

     

But for those of us that want to see the stateless nations of Europe take our place on the world stage on the same basis as the other countries of the world, Belgium—just like the UK—is a state that does exist, but shouldn't continue to.

Belgium has become increasingly dysfunctional for years, with the people of Flanders increasingly seeing themselves as a nation in their own right, but with Wallonia anxious to maintain the status quo. Last month the fragile federal government broke down again and a snap election was called for today to break the impasse. The results are just coming in [this seems to be a good source] and they show a quite remarkable result for the N-VA, who are Plaid Cymru's partners in the EFA group in the European Parliament. They are currently standing at 28.4% in Flanders and 20.6% in Belgium as a whole. This makes them comfortably the largest party, and this is all the more amazing because they were founded less than ten years ago and were nowhere in the last Belgian election. It looks like Flander's time has come.

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Jill Evans posted details of a press conference they gave last week in response to their rapid rise in the polls, which is worth reading to find out more about them. Like Plaid Cymru and the SNP the N-VA are inclusive, civic nationalists fundamentally opposed to the far right, exclusive nationalism of Vlaams-Belang (who I'm pleased to say did not do well, which was quite a relief following the increased support for the equivalent party in the Netherlands in last week's Dutch election). But unlike Plaid, they are a party of the centre-right rather than the left ... though it should be said that politics in Flanders is generally right-leaning while that of Wallonia generally leans to the left. The biggest party there is the Parti Socialiste, with 35.0% support in Wallonia and 10.3% in Belgium as a whole.

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It will take a while—maybe a long while—for things to become clear as the parties negotiate to form a government, but it does seem clear that Flanders is bound to gain more autonomy, while the power of the federal government will reduce. That's encouraging news for us, because what happens next will provide one model—though not necessarily the only one—for how similar stateless nations in the UK and Spain can move towards independence.

     

Bart De Wever, the N-VA leader, said that he is not looking for outright independence straight away, but to move from the current federal system to a confederal system in which Belgium will "slowly but surely, very gently disappear".

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