I want to thank the Western Mail and Wales on Sunday, and Martin Shipton in particular, for such extensive spreads in the two papers on Friday and yesterday. The articles are on line here and here, and there was also an editorial which is not on line but can be read here.
When I and others made our formal complaint about what Dafydd Elis-Thomas and Rhodri Glyn Thomas had said, our first purpose was not to get either man deselected. We sought a conciliatory solution, recommending that the party should formally instruct them to make public statements saying unequivocally that they support the aims of the party ... and specifically the aims of independence for Wales within Europe and Wales becoming a member of the United Nations. We only wanted to see a more severe sanction if they refused to make such a statement, and suggested that this should be removal from the party's national register of candidates so that they could not stand for Plaid Cymru in future elections.
Both men had treated the disciplinary procedure with contempt by refusing to take any part in it or make a statement of the kind we requested. So one of the satisfying results of making what happened known to the wider public has been to see Dafydd Elis-Thomas and Rhodri Glyn Thomas treat a journalist with more respect than they showed anyone in their own party, by making clear statements about where they stood on the matter. Their responses are interesting because they are so different.
Rhodri Glyn Thomas said:
"This is just totally irrelevant to the real politics of Wales. The economy is in crisis, unemployment is rising month by month and someone wants to talk about a concept no-one fully understands.
"Unfortunately, because the SNP are holding a referendum on Scottish independence, some people think we should be doing the same in Wales. I suggest they go to Scotland.
"Independence is a long-term aim of the party and I've no problem with that, but this is nothing to do with the here and now. If we don’t concentrate on the crisis facing Wales today, the electorate will treat us with the contempt we deserve."
Perhaps it's best to start by clarifying the timescale. The constitution of the party doesn't describe independence for Wales as either a long, short or medium term aim and, so far as I am aware, no-one in Plaid Cymru is calling for a referendum on independence now. As has happened in Scotland, we in Wales won't get a referendum on independence until Plaid has won enough seats in the National Assembly to get such a referendum bill through or until other parties come to realize that independence is in Wales' best interests. And nobody doubts that in order to form a government Plaid Cymru will need to present convincing arguments on a whole range of issues.
But for me, these other issues are in no way separate from the issue of independence, they are part and parcel of the argument for it. In short, the best way to improve things like the level of employment is for us in Wales to take more, and eventually all, responsibility for the economy into our own hands.
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But if we look at his statement carefully, it's clear that Rhodri Glyn hasn't changed his position at all. He is talking about the party's position on independence (which all of us know about) but carefully skirting round the issue of whether he has changed his own position from what it was in this interview where he said:
Let me say it's not my view. It may be the party's view, but it's never been my view.
And in a way, that's fair enough. I'll give him due credit for sticking to his principles and refusing to change his mind on an issue he obviously feels strongly about. Providing he doesn't use his position within the party to put forward his personal views and undermine the aims of the party he will not put himself at risk of another disciplinary procedure. But I'm sure he now realizes that it will be all but impossible for him to get selected as a Plaid Cymru candidate in the next Assembly election, not least because the new candidate agreement will require every candidate to explicitly confirm that they support the aims of the party. In effect, he has just deselected himself.
In contrast, Dafydd Elis-Thomas went the other way. He has come out with an amazing statement saying that he is now an enthusiastic supporter of independence for Wales:
Lord Elis-Thomas said: "I voted enthusiastically for the motion [in favour of independence in Europe] at the Llandudno conference, and so far as I am concerned David Cameron has proved that we must have it."
Anybody who is even remotely aware of politics in Wales will have spluttered their cornflakes all over the Western Mail (or their computer screen) when they read this, for it represents a truly seismic shift in his thinking. Here is a short selection of articles showing the strength of his opposition to independence in the past:
Western Mail, 17 September 2004
Scotsman, 22 September 2004
Western Mail, 12 November 2004
Daily Post, 30 December 2010
Daily Post, 8 September 2011
His U-turn is all the more remarkable because in the last of these articles he said, "I will not change my personal convictions." Yet he now wants us to believe that he completely reversed his position only two days later.
It will be up to him how he reconciles his previous views on independence with what he's just said in the Western Mail, but if he's looking for some ideas this explanation is probably going to be more credible than any other, and he's more than welcome to use it.
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Now it's not impossible for him to have had a genuine change of opinion on the matter. After all, if our arguments in favour of independence are convincing, we should expect to win over many hundreds of thousands of voters in Wales in the next few years. Therefore why shouldn't he be one of them?
As a result of what happened in Brussels the week before last, Carwyn Jones came to realize for the first time that Wales' national interests are not always the same as the interests of the UK as a whole, and would be advanced better by the Welsh Government having direct representation in the EU:
For the first time, I am now seriously concerned about whether the interests of Wales can be advanced effectively in Europe by the UK Government. For those of us who are committed to the United Kingdom, and the place of the UK within the European Union, this is a deeply concerning position to be in.
It is a mark of maturity for someone to reconsider their position when circumstances change, so I for one am going to give Carwyn credit for it rather than criticize him for not having seen it before now. Why should I do any less if Dafydd El has genuinely changed his mind?
The only question is whether he has or whether he's just saying it, for he has been manoeuvred into a position where he has little choice but to say that he supports independence. Unlike Rhodri Glyn he cannot simply be quiet about the subject, for if he still harbours ambitions to lead Plaid Cymru he knows full well that he wouldn't be able to sidestep the issue of independence during the leadership contest. If he continued to say he was against it he would be subject to more disciplinary procedures in the party; and if he continued to be vague, cryptic or ambivalent about it he knows that questions about it would be at the forefront of every public meeting and media interview. So what other choice does he have?
And besides that, he must surely know that the overwhelming majority of Plaid Cymru members support independence for Wales, so it would be sheer stupidity for him not to come round if he wants to get votes in the leadership contest. He might not be as principled as Rhodri Glyn, but he's certainly no fool.
