I believe that a universal basic income, also known as a citizens' income, is an idea that is exactly right for our times; particularly in mature economies where the increasing use of automation and artificial intelligence will mean that ordinary, low-skilled work becomes increasingly hard to obtain. It is a way to help ensure that the wealth created by technological advances is distributed throughout society, rather than concentrated in the hands of the corporations that deploy them.
A world where machines do all the tedious work, leaving people free to move mankind forward, used to be the stuff of science fiction. But it's rapidly becoming mainstream. It's an idea that has already been embraced by the Green Party, here, and now looks to be something that Labour under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are set to examine seriously. It featured in McDonnell's speech to Labour Conference today.
As co-incidence would have it, it is also a policy that featured in Elkarrekin Podemos' policy programme in the Basque Parliamentary election. I found it interesting that they believe it can be introduced at Basque level, rather than at a Spanish level. It would be refreshing to see the SNP or Plaid Cymru consider it, although I suspect it might be too ambitious for either.
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However, that's not the point of this post. The reason I'm writing is because I've discovered an organization called the Basic Income Earth Network, whose website is here. It's helpful, because it shows how the idea is gaining ground across the world. One particular article that caught my attention was about a Europe-wide poll conducted by Dalia Research in Berlin, which found that 64% of people in Europe were in favour of Basic Income and, perhaps even more interestingly, that people who were more aware of what Basic Income is tend to be more in favour of it. The full article is here, but here are some graphics from it.
Nor is it a subject in which there is any big difference between the countries of the UK and other countries in Europe. Support in the UK is at 62%.
So next time you read in the media that the likes of the Greens and the current Labour leadership are "hard-left" and "unelectable", it might be worth reminding ourselves that some of the ideas they're putting forward are very much in the mainstream of the direction in which Europe is moving.
As with probably everyone else in Wales, I've had to reflect hard on the PISA results announced this week. However when I read Professor David Egan's comment on what Victoria Winkler had to say in this post on the Bevan Foundation blog, it prompted me to look back to what I wrote three years ago.
It strikes me that nothing much has changed, and therefore I hope people won't mind me recycling it.
Poor academic performance ... or just poor?
It goes without saying that the results of the 2009 PISA survey published yesterday are disappointing. But although everyone knows there's something wrong, not many people are giving a coherent reason why.
However the answer one person has given does seem to me to be more plausible than most. Professor David Egan wrote this on This is my truth today ... though it's only an extract from his full article, which is here.
Far more significant, however, was the extremely strong relationship that exists in Wales, compared to more successful countries, between living in relative poverty and disadvantage and not doing well in PISA. That is again likely to be the most important cause that explains our overall performance and it is also possible that we will have slipped further in this respect relative to other countries, including England, who have begun to address the relationship between poverty and educational performance.
Put quite directly, where you are born in Wales, who your family and friends are and the community you live in has a profound effect, despite the raw talents and potential that may be your birthright, with what you will achieve in education and thereafter to a large extent in life. In essence if we want to explain PISA, we need to look no further than the insidious effect which poverty continues to have on our nation and its people, particularly our children.
Today, one day after the PISA results were published, this article in the Western Mail shows how Wales' GVA relative to the UK as a whole has slipped yet further.
The full data are here but the critical figures are:
Wales GVA per head relative to the UK as a whole
1989 ... 85.4%
1999 ... 77.4%
2010 ... 74.3%
This shows that there is a fairly good correlation between Wales' worsening GVA figures and our decline in academic achievement. That, of course, does not prove a connexion, but it certainly adds weight to the probability.
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It is fair to say that the link between educational achievement and poverty is a subject that Professor Egan has raised on a number of occasions, for example here in March last year. I thought the figures in this table were particularly informative:
The percentage of children not meeting the expected grade in the lower Cynon Valley:
• Age seven ... 25.1%
• Age eleven ... 32.9%
• Age fourteen ... 58.8%
• Age sixteen ... 77%
Assuming this pattern is going to be pretty much the same for other areas of higher poverty in Wales, this probably does most to explain why Wales does relatively well compared with England in the early key stages, but that performance then declines markedly when children enter secondary school ... and it should be remembered that the PISA tests are taken by those aged fifteen. It would also explain why Wales then starts to do relatively well (at least when the Welsh Baccalaureate is taken into account, as I noted here) in post-GCSE education. This would be because children from more disadvantaged areas are less likely to be taking A levels and the Welsh Bac Diploma.
It is not a matter of poverty, but of relative poverty. Many of us will remember a generation where we were much poorer than we are now in absolute terms, but in a situation where the gap between rich and poor is widening rather than being narrowed, those who are already poor must feel an increasing sense of hopelessness about whether education—which always used to be the obvious route out of poverty—can now still bridge a gap that is continually widening.
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If this analysis is true, then it would seem to suggest that the problem of our poor academic performance is not really going to be solved by focusing only on education, and in particular will not be solved simply by spending more money on education. To me, that solution seems to be a knee jerk response. People will suggest it either because they feel we have to "do something" no matter what, or because they are involved in education and want to see education cushioned from the severity of the cuts.
Money, particularly investment, is needed. But I think the target should not so much on changing the way we teach, for the changes we have made in the past few years seem to me to be perfectly reasonable, and need time to work through before we can judge them. Instead, the more pressing need should be to change the attitude of hopelessness that seems to be growing as the relative poverty of the most disadvantaged parts of our communities increases. I think Professor Dave Adamson's quote in this clip from the link above hits the nail on the head.
There's almost a social isolation that can occur, and young people can get locked in a local culture where they have very low aspirations. They don't expect to do well in school, their parents don't expect them to do well and, sadly, their teachers often don't expect them to do well. So it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy that they won't do well.
My original post is here, and I'd advise people to look at it because of the quality of the comments and discussion afterwards ... which we can perhaps continue here.
There is an interesting story on the BBC website about a report on the economic inequalities that exist in Wales. I don't think there's anything surprising about the headline:
Yet this does appear to be a very heavyweight piece of research. A quick skim through it has convinced me that it is going to be well worth reading, and I'm writing this in the hope of persuading others to do so too. Just click the image:
The Executive Summary is fairly concise, so I thought I'd copy it as a taster of what's inside.
Executive Summary
The report sets out outcomes in education, employment, earnings, income, poverty and wealth in Wales in comparison to other areas of the UK. The data analysis compares outcomes by gender, age, ethnicity, religion, disability and housing tenure. Analysing inequality within a small country that has relatively low incidence of certain population sub-groups (e.g. ethnic minorities) sometimes limits the degree of detail that can be achieved in the analysis. Despite this, the following key findings emerge:
• The historical productivity gap relative to the UK is continuing to widen for Wales. The industrial and business structure produces weak demand for skills, with individuals’ earnings in Wales being, on average, lower than the UK average. Disadvantage in education, and subsequently in employment and earnings, attaches particularly to young people, those of Bangladeshi and Pakistani ethnicity, and people who are work limiting and DDA defined disabled. Within each of these groups, women are generally more disadvantaged.
• While overall in 2009 two-thirds of pupils in Wales attained key stage 4 qualifications at National Qualifications Framework level 2 (NVQ level 2 or equivalent) by the time they were 16, the chance of gaining these qualifications was strongly related to family income. Pupils eligible for Free School Meals (FSM) are 2.5 times less likely to get A*-C grades in core subjects than their ineligible peers. People defined as both DDA disabled and as having a work limiting condition have by far the lowest educational achievements of all the equality categories. Both men and women in these groups are 3 times more likely to have no qualifications compared to non-disabled people.
• People who are both DDA disabled and have a work limiting condition experience most disadvantage in relation to employment. Seventy four per cent are not employed. This is more than 3 times the overall UK proportion of 22%. Women are disadvantaged in employment terms: in almost all population groups women face an above-average incidence of non-employment. This is particularly the case for some ethnic minority groups in Wales, particularly women of Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani and Chinese ethnicity.
• The median hourly earnings of men in Wales (£9.88, measured between 2004/5-2008/9) were just above the overall UK median (£9.81), while median female earnings (£8.04) were only 82% of the UK median, giving a Wales gender gap of 19% in hourly earnings. Using a low-pay threshold defined as two-thirds of UK median earnings, the proportion of employees who are low-paid is higher in Wales than in the UK as a whole. In terms of hourly earnings 26% of employees in Wales are low-paid, compared to 22% in the UK. The incidence of low weekly pay for full-time employees in the UK is 22%, in Wales 28% and for women full-time employees in Wales it is 38%: a ‘gender penalty’ of 10%. Groups whose median earnings fall below the two thirds of the UK median for full-time employees are young people; those of Bangladeshi or Pakistani ethnicity; workers with no educational qualifications, workers who live in social housing and employees (particularly those working part time) in Elementary Occupations, Retail and Customer Services occupations and Personal Services.
• Approximately a fifth of the Welsh population live in poverty (measured after housing costs). Those living on the lowest incomes are once again the youngest, disabled people, those of Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnicity and those living in rented accommodation. However, lone parents are the most susceptible group, with almost half living in poverty. Being in work does not necessarily provide a route out of poverty, with 13% of in-work households in Wales living in poverty. In-work poverty is again most prevalent among lone parent households, Asian households and those who are renting. Levels of wealth are lowest among young people, lone parents and single households, non-white households and those with a work-limiting illness or disability. The lower levels of educational attainment observed among protected groups will effect the positions they achieve in society and the resources and opportunities that these positions confer.
• Overall levels of inequality within Wales are not as wide as in the rest of the UK as Wales has relatively few people who earn the highest salaries or who are ‘very rich’. Those who are among the wealthiest 10% of people in Wales have around £100,000 less total wealth compared to the wealthiest 10% across the UK as a whole. The level of inequality within most sub-groups of the population is generally narrower than that observed across the population as a whole. Inequality between groups therefore does indeed contribute to overall inequality. However, there is a considerable level of inequality between rich and poor within each of these groups, unconnected with and unexplained by group membership.
The UK NEP report suggested that there is little awareness of the enormity of economic disparity which ‘runs through society, from rich to poor,” and that this ‘acts as a constraint on any policies designed to contribute to reducing inequality’ (NEP 2010:398). This report provides the most thorough examination of the material consequences of difference undertaken within Wales. The findings in this report represent a significant body of new evidence on socio-economic inequalities. In each case, the evidence connects the distribution of economic outcomes to social characteristics both between and within equality groups. A widespread recognition of inequality, its causes and effects, is a precursor to the use of policy to intervene to interrupt its reproduction.
Additionally, the raw data can be downloaded in the form of spreadsheets from this page.
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Without wanting to be too dramatic, the economic situation in Wales is very serious, and generally worse than it is in other parts of the UK. As a nation, we need to address this and do something about it.
Of course it is right and good that we focus resources on those in our society who are disadvantaged, and that we do everything we can to overcome the effects of poverty ... but that is to deal only with the symptoms rather than the cause. Poverty is the lack of money. We need to become more wealthy and more prosperous as a nation.
I firmly believe that this is something that we must do for ourselves, rather than relying on the richer parts of the UK to bale us out. We have been living like this for much too long. In the short term it is right that we should seek fair funding on the basis of need ... but only in the short term. The long term answer is to make ourselves more self-sufficient, and this will require taking the levers that control our economy, such as taxation, into our own hands. If we shy away from this, how can we expect anything to change? Our economic decline relative to the rest of the UK will continue until we do.
It goes without saying that the results of the 2009 PISA survey published yesterday are disappointing. But although everyone knows there's something wrong, not many people are giving a coherent reason why.
However the answer one person has given does seem to me to be more plausible than most. Professor David Egan wrote this on This is my truth today ... though it's only an extract from his full article, which is here.
Far more significant, however, was the extremely strong relationship that exists in Wales, compared to more successful countries, between living in relative poverty and disadvantage and not doing well in PISA. That is again likely to be the most important cause that explains our overall performance and it is also possible that we will have slipped further in this respect relative to other countries, including England, who have begun to address the relationship between poverty and educational performance.
Put quite directly, where you are born in Wales, who your family and friends are and the community you live in has a profound effect, despite the raw talents and potential that may be your birthright, with what you will achieve in education and thereafter to a large extent in life. In essence if we want to explain PISA, we need to look no further than the insidious effect which poverty continues to have on our nation and its people, particularly our children.
Today, one day after the PISA results were published, this article in the Western Mail shows how Wales' GVA relative to the UK as a whole has slipped yet further.
The full data are here but the critical figures are:
Wales GVA per head relative to the UK as a whole
1989 ... 85.4%
1999 ... 77.4%
2010 ... 74.3%
This shows that there is a fairly good correlation between Wales' worsening GVA figures and our decline in academic achievement. That, of course, does not prove a connexion, but it certainly adds weight to the probability.
-
It is fair to say that the link between educational achievement and poverty is a subject that Professor Egan has raised on a number of occasions, for example here in March last year. I thought the figures in this table were particularly informative:
The percentage of children not meeting the expected grade in the lower Cynon Valley:
• Age seven ... 25.1%
• Age eleven ... 32.9%
• Age fourteen ... 58.8%
• Age sixteen ... 77%
Assuming this pattern is going to be pretty much the same for other areas of higher poverty in Wales, this probably does most to explain why Wales does relatively well compared with England in the early key stages, but that performance then declines markedly when children enter secondary school ... and it should be remembered that the PISA tests are taken by those aged fifteen. It would also explain why Wales then starts to do relatively well (at least when the Welsh Baccalaureate is taken into account, as I noted here) in post-GCSE education. This would be because children from more disadvantaged areas are less likely to be taking A levels and the Welsh Bac Diploma.
It is not a matter of poverty, but of relative poverty. Many of us will remember a generation where we were much poorer than we are now in absolute terms, but in a situation where the gap between rich and poor is widening rather than being narrowed, those who are already poor must feel an increasing sense of hopelessness about whether education—which always used to be the obvious route out of poverty—can now still bridge a gap that is continually widening.
-
If this analysis is true, then it would seem to suggest that the problem of our poor academic performance is not really going to be solved by focusing only on education, and in particular will not be solved simply by spending more money on education. To me, that solution seems to be a knee jerk response. People will suggest it either because they feel we have to "do something" no matter what, or because they are involved in education and want to see education cushioned from the severity of the cuts.
Money, particularly investment, is needed. But I think the target should not so much on changing the way we teach, for the changes we have made in the past few years seem to me to be perfectly reasonable, and need time to work through before we can judge them. Instead, the more pressing need should be to change the attitude of hopelessness that seems to be growing as the relative poverty of the most disadvantaged parts of our communities increases. I think Professor Dave Adamson's quote in this clip from the link above hits the nail on the head.
There's almost a social isolation that can occur, and young people can get locked in a local culture where they have very low aspirations. They don't expect to do well in school, their parents don't expect them to do well and, sadly, their teachers often don't expect them to do well. So it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy that they won't do well.
I've just read an article by Menna Machreth, the chair of Cymdeithas yr Iaith, which I hope she won't mind me publicizing. It's on the Lausanne Global Conversation website, and can be read by clicking the link below:
It's addressed to Christians across the world; many of whom will not know much about Wales, and probably know even less about our culture and language, and the threats it has faced and still faces.
But of perhaps greater interest to us who do know about Cymdeithas is her explanation of how protest and non-violent direct action dovetail with her faith. For me, these two paragraphs stood out:
Non-violent direct action means acting in a way which respects life without hurting or abusing anybody. This means accepting full responsibility for all actions and being ready to face the consequences and punishment. Within the Welsh Language Society, the ideal is no fist violence, no verbal violence, and no heart violence. It is emphasized to all members that we should not act out of reactionary feelings and should avoid contempt towards individuals within the authorities. Instead, the non-violent principle urges members to act out of a desire for change, a desire for justice in a reasoned and calculated manner. As Christians within the movement, we must act out of love at all times and must remember to love all the people we’re involved with. In the New Testament, Jesus Christ clears the temple but there is no suggestion of violence against people but towards the tables and throwing the animals out as a symbolic act. The life and teachings of Jesus Christ is the foundations of non-violent direct action for me; loving your enemies combined with a stance over truth and what is right.
Government and institutions are violent through their law and policies towards the Welsh, their language and identity. Using violence against this injustice will not solve anything. But we can choose not to conform to violence. I consider apathy towards injustice as co-operation with that injustice. In that sense, we are all guilty for our lack of action whether it is towards identity, world poverty or damaging the environment for example.
I want to say that I fully agree with her. And although I didn't do it in the specific context of faith, I outlined very similar principles on direct action in this post last year. I would urge people to think hard about it.
As far as the language is concerned, there is every indication that the government in Westminster will impose its agenda on Wales with little realization about the consequences of its actions. We will need to protest, and we might need to go further. Alongside that—and done for the same reasons and with the same lack of realization about the consequences of its actions—we will see economic and social injustice leading to resentment and anger on a scale that we haven't seen for decades.
Faced with this it is easy for us to get angry, but not nearly so easy to direct a justified sense of anger in a direction that will make a difference. This is a time for people of principle to think hard about how we stand up for the things that matter.
Usury:The practice of lending money and charging the borrower interest, especially at an exorbitant or illegally high rate.
Two unrelated stories that caught my eye earlier this evening cry out to be brought together. The first was the news that Credit Unions in Wales are to get a boost of £750,000:
We live in a widely unequal society and, in spite of the stated intention of some of our politicians, the gap between rich and poor is not decreasing. One of the reasons for that is access to affordable money. If you aren't in a job, or don't have enough savings, or have any sort of bad financial history you—especially now that the credit crunch has taken hold—get relegated to what can only be described as an economic underclass.
It then becomes expensive to make the sort of financial transactions that the better off among us take for granted. Normal borrowing on overdrafts and credit cards is about 17%-19%, that virtually doubles for those whom the banks and financial institutions regard as greater risks and, if it becomes impossible to get even that your only way of getting credit is through loan sharks and pawnbrokers that could charge maybe 100% or more.
Although the Newsnight piece was presented from a religious point of view (the three monotheistic religions all condemn usury) I would not want to make any point based specifically on faith or belief. However I don't think there can be many people who would not be disgusted about charging the poorest and most vulnerable members of our society exorbitant amounts of interest and fees while the better off get easy access to cheap money. Whether we have any religious beliefs or not, it is still morally repugnant.
Furthermore, it is even worse that financial institutions charge such high rates of interest on borrowing when they themselves can borrow money at only a tiny fraction of the rates they charge. All the more so for banks which are still in business only because they were bailed out at huge expense by the taxpayer.
Now, I might well take the point made by Peter McNamara on Newsnight that small, short-term loans need to be arranged, and that the administration costs money. He might have a point about fees ... but certainly not about the rates of interest they charge.
This is where Credit Unions come into their own. Because they operate at a completely different scale, they do not need to make the same sort of charges. And because they operate at a community level, the attitude that people take towards them is likely to be quite different from the attitudes thay have towards a big bank that can splurge millions on bonuses and pensions. They encourage a greater sense of financial responsibility from those that use them.
So we, at a political level, need in our turn to do what we can to encourage the growth of Credit Unions. I was particularly encouraged to see that some CU's had begin to offer card transaction services in collaboration with the Co-operative Bank, which I mentioned here:
Of course £750,000 is a drop in the ocean compared with the bail out that some of the mainstream banks received. It won't change the world, but it will make a significant difference to the thirty or so Credit Unions we have in Wales. Hopefully, they will now be able to offer services to more people, as a way for them to climb out of the financial underclass we as a society have created.
But as for the banks—as well as for the less reputable organizations and individuals that offer "financial services" of course—we urgently need to have laws that limit the amount that can be charged in fees and interest ... probably on a sliding scale, in proportion to the size and term of loan and to the base rate. And we need to have stronger, criminal sanctions available to use against the loan sharks.
This blog has been set up to complement the Syniadau Forums.
Much of what will appear on this blog will also appear in the Syniadau Forums, but the emphasis on this blog is slightly different. The forums are focused more on the structures and institutions that Wales will need to develop in order to become a successful independent nation, arranged on a subject by subject basis, but the blog will have more of an emphasis on day to day political news and developments.
People are welcome to reply or leave comments either here or on the Syniadau Forums. If anyone wants to initiate a new subject they are very welcome to do so there.
