A few weeks ago, before the LibDems got their chance to appear in the televised leaders debates at the expense of other parties, not may people thought that a hung parliament was possible. Then, for a brief moment, it became more than possible ... it became probable.
There is one overridingly good thing that would be achieved by such an outcome, namely that we would get a referendum on changing from the first-past-the-post voting system to a system in which the number of seats each party gets is a fair reflexion of the number of people who vote for them.
Last month in this post, I reminded people about what happened in 1983:
In the 1983 Westminster Election, Labour got 27.6% of the vote and 209 seats (32.2%) while the then SDP-Liberal Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and only 20 seats (3.5%). This illustrated the unfairness of Westminster's electoral system more starkly than anything I can remember, and public outcry at such obvious unfairness was probably only averted because both those parties were well behind the Tories who got 42.3% of the vote and 397 seats (61.1%).
And although the percentages might be a little different this time round, the Conservatives show signs of climbing back up in the opinion polls. So there is a chance that they will get an overall majority with maybe as little as 38% of the vote. Even if that majority is only half a dozen MPs, it would kill any chance of changing the voting system for Westminster stone dead.
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Now why should I care about that? For me, one of the prime reasons for wanting Wales to be independent is the manifest corruption of Westminster. If a so-called democracy is not capable of making itself democratic, the best course is to leave them to it and build a better, fairer democracy of our own in line with most other countries in Europe.
By corruption, I don't just mean the financial scandals, because they are only small beer compared with the much bigger corrupting influence of the voting system. It results in parties that have only a minority of public support getting artificially inflated majorities in terms of seats. Any real electoral contest is limited to maybe only a hundred or so marginal seats into which people with money can pour inordinate resources to essentially buy the result they want. The system of selecting candidates means that the two big parties can put whoever they want into safe seats, making it virtually impossible for the public to get rid of them.
And, to top it off, the other half of the corrupt institution is an unelected chamber primarily made up by political appointments from the two big parties. So that if, by some miracle, the public do get rid of a Mandelson the party concerned can still keep him in government.
It would be impossible to set up such a system from scratch, which is why every devolved institution—in Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and London—uses some sort of proportional voting system. But left to the two big parties, Parliament would never change itself in any way that really mattered. The Tories wouldn't do it. Labour would promise to do it ... but renege on their promises, as they have before, as soon as they got into power.
So I'll freely admit that there is a part of me that wants an outrageously unfair result to emerge in the early hours of Friday morning ... simply because it will be another landmark event that will help convince people in Wales that we will be better off as an independent country.
But there is also a part of me that can't walk by on the other side of the road when I see a neighbour in trouble. The LibDems aren't much of a party, they just have a brand new set of policies that haven't been tried before. But they do want electoral reform in the form of the Single Transferable Vote ... and for that reason, and that reason alone, I want to see enough of them in Westminster to ensure that we get a referendum on STV.
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Earlier this week the LibDems became wild-eyed at the thought that George Monbiot was urging people to support them rather than Plaid Cymru. Peter Black, in this post thought that Plaid would be "pretty pig-sick" about it.
Well, he got hold of the wrong end of the stick, probably because he forgot that both Plaid Cymru and the SNP also support STV, as do the Greens. If what matters most right now is getting enough MPs into the Commons to get a referendum on STV, then electing a Plaid, SNP or Green MP will achieve exactly the same end. The point George Monbiot was making is explained much more clearly in this article yesterday:
The Parasites in Labour's Brain
It's an article that clearly shows just how right-wing Labour has become. It shows that there is no point in voting Labour to "keep out the Tories" because Labour are in virtually every respect nearly, if not quite, as bad as the Tories. At the end, he says this:
I understand the hazards of voting for the smaller parties and allowing the right-hand glove puppet to replace the left-hand glove puppet. I know that the Tories are even worse than this government. But by voting for the candidates on the list compiled by the democracy campaign Hang 'em, not all of whom are Liberal Democrats but all of whom are reformers with a good chance of taking or keeping seats, we can break this rotten system while remaining true to our beliefs.
Well I took a look at the site, particularly in relation to Wales, and would recommend others to do the same. It lists the constituencies, together with a suggestion of which party is best placed to keep out both Labour and the Tories:
Aberavon
Paul Nicholls-Jones ... Plaid CymruAberconwy
Phil Edwards ... Plaid CymruAlyn & Deeside
Paul Brighton ... Lib DemArfon
Hywel Williams ... Plaid CymruBlaenau Gwent
Not included ... but obviously the sitting independent Dai DaviesBrecon & Radnor
Roger Williams ... Lib DemBridgend
Wayne Morgan ... Lib DemCaerphilly
Lindsay Whittle ... Plaid CymruCardiff Central
Jenny Willott ... Lib DemCardiff North
John Dixon ... Lib DemCardiff South & Penarth
George Burke ... IndependentCardiff West
Mohammed Sarul Islam ... Plaid CymruCarmarthen East & Dinefwr
Jonathan Edwards ... Plaid CymruCarmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
John Dixon ... Plaid CymruCeredigion
Mark Williams ... Lib Dem (?)Clwyd South
Bruce Roberts ... Lib DemClwyd West
Llyr Huws Gruffydd ... Plaid CymruCynon Valley
Dafydd Trystan Davies ... Plaid CymruDelyn
Bill Brereton ... Lib DemDwyfor Meirionnydd
Elfyn Llwyd ... Plaid CymruGower
Mike Day ... Lib DemIslwyn
Steffan Lewis ... Plaid CymruLlanelli
Myfanwy Davies ... Plaid CymruMerthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
Amy Kitcher ... Lib Dem (?)Montgomeryshire
Lembit Öpik ... Lib DemMonmouth
Martin Blakebrough ... Lib DemNeath
Alun Llywelyn ... Plaid CymruNewport East
Ed Townsend ... Lib DemNewport West
Veronica German ... Lib DemOgmore
Jackie Radford ... Lib DemPontypridd
Michael Powell ... Lib DemPreseli Pembrokeshire
Henry Jones-Davies ... Plaid CymruRhondda
Geraint Davies ... Plaid CymruSwansea East
Robert Speht ... Lib DemSwansea West
Peter May ... Lib DemTorfaen
Fred Wildgust ... Independent (???)Vale of Clwyd
Paul Penlington ... Lib DemVale of Glamorgan
Eluned Parrott ... Lib DemWrexham
Tom Rippeth ... Lib DemYnys Môn
Dylan Rees ... Plaid Cymru
To save anyone counting, the suggestions include 16 Plaid candidates and 21 LibDems, with three independents.
I'll go along with the suggestions for the most part. The most obvious exception would be Ceredigion, where from the single point of view of getting STV it actually makes no difference whether people vote for Penri James or Mark Williams. But from every other point of view, it makes a huge difference.
I also think Plaid is a better bet in Merthyr because although the LibDems were second to Labour in 2005 they have slipped considerably since then. They were fourth behind Labour, Plaid and UKIP in the 2009 Euro Election. Fred Wildgust in Torfaen is an equally strange choice ... he is definitely not the sort of person I would encourage anyone to vote for!
But apart from those exceptions, I think the list is about right. And so that's how I would encourage people to vote. Just this once, and for just one reason: to change the voting system for Westminster. The last window of opportunity nearly, but not quite, opened more than 25 years ago in 1983. It might be another generation before a similar window of opportunity opens again ... and Wales and Scotland will both have become independent countries well before then.
