Following the lowest of low-key launches for the Welsh Government's new campaign telling parents about the benefits of Welsh-medium education, I've just discovered that they've put up this video on their YouTube channel.
It's a great video but, as I write this, it has only been viewed 21 times.
So I'd like to invite people reading this to change things by sending the YouTube link to everyone you know using Twitter, Facebook or just plain email.
The news that Ireland now has the highest level of net emigration per 1,000 inhabitants of any country in Europe is naturally a matter of great concern for the Irish. I wouldn't want to detract from how serious that is in any way.
However what struck me about the graph above from An Sionnach Fionn is that net immigration into the UK is not particularly great. It is only just above the EU average, with twelve other European countries having greater, and sometimes far greater, levels of net immigration.
Denmark, Finland and Belgium have greater net immigration than the UK. Germany, Austria, Sweden, Lichenstein and Italy have net levels of immigration more than twice that of the UK. Malta has three times more. Switzerland and Norway have four times more. Luxembourg has more than eight times more.
The raw data are available here on EuroStat.
One of the best lines in Leanne Wood's speech at the Plaid Cymru conference last month was:
"The Wales that we want to create will be operated by a fairly fundamental principle: that services run for the benefit of people can only be properly managed in the interests of the people."
She didn't use the exact word "owned" by the people, but it was clear from what she went on to say that the model that best seems to fit our circumstances now is that of a non-profit-distributing company along the lines of Glas Cymru ... which is effectively the same thing.
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I don't quite know how I missed it at the time, but only a few weeks ago YouGov conducted a survey about public ownership and control of key sectors and services. The results are summarized here, and the full details are here.
These are the levels of support for public ownership and management of four key sectors:
This graphic shows the level of support for public ownership and management of energy and rail services by voting intention for political parties:
I think two things are surprising. The first is that even a majority of Conservative voters support nationalization of energy and rail services. In fact the margin of support is bigger than the graphic might suggest, for only 39% of Conservative voters wanted railways to continue to be run by private companies, and only 38% wanted energy to continue to be run by private companies. The rest were undecided.
The second surprise, to me at least, is that such a high percentage of UKIP voters are in favour of nationalization.
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Another set of questions was about whether government should have the power to control prices:
Although the margin favour of private sector rent control was quite small, public opinion ties in exactly with what Leanne said at conference:
"Due to the failure of successive Governments to build sufficient council housing and cool the housing market, many young people are forced to rent from private landlords well into their twenties and thirties. This is Generation Rent.
"There are 190,000 households renting in Wales. 14% of all households are in the private rented sector.
"Even during this long recession, rent rises have continued to outstrip inflation. In Wales over the last year rent has on average risen by 5%, well above the UK average.
"This is completely unsustainable. I am therefore announcing our intention today to reintroduce rent control for the private rented sector during the next Assembly term."
These are ideas whose time has come, and it should be clear to everyone that we in Plaid Cymru have our finger on the pulse of public opinion to a far greater extent than other parties.
Thanks to Golwg 360, I found out about the launch of a new campaign to make parents aware of the benefits of Welsh-medium education for their children. It was also featured on Newyddion 9 last night:
Since then, I've searched through the rest of the media to see if this new campaign had been reported anywhere in English. So far as I can see, it hasn't been reported on the BBC, ITV, the Western Mail or the Daily Post. The only mention of the campaign in English is on the Welsh Government's website.
How on earth can we take a so-called awareness campaign seriously if no attempt is made to have it reported in the English language media. After all, the target audience of the campaign is specifically parents who do not speak Welsh, not those who already can.
In part, this is the fault of the Welsh Government for not taking enough trouble to have the campaign publicized in the English language media. But it is also the fault of the media organizations for not bothering to do it ... especially the BBC, since they have must have taken a conscious editorial decision to report the story in Welsh, but not bother to report it to the very people the campaign is meant to be aimed at.
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So, in an attempt to spread the message to those who only speak English, let me reproduce what it says on the WG website:
First Minister launches Welsh-medium education campaign
First Minister, Carwyn Jones, has today launched an information campaign to raise awareness of Welsh-medium and bilingual education, Live in Wales: Learn in Welsh?
The First Minister launched the campaign at Ysgol Gymraeg Trelyn, Blackwood, where he met with parents and read a Welsh language story to children in the reception class.
The three year campaign will target expectant parents and parents with children aged 0-3, offering them information and advice so that they are fully informed when making a decision on whether to send their child to a Welsh-medium or bilingual school or not. The campaign aims to dispel some of the myths around Welsh-medium education.
The First Minister spoke to parents who do not speak Welsh about their experience of sending their child to a Welsh-medium school. The First Minister said:
"Parents are not always aware, or do not have easy access to information about Welsh-medium schools. This three year campaign will raise awareness of Welsh-medium and bilingual education so that parents can make an informed choice.
"I understand the concerns some parents may have about sending their children to Welsh-medium and bilingual schools, especially if they don’t speak Welsh themselves. This campaign is designed to ensure parents have all the information they need to be confident that whatever choice they make is the right one for them and their child."
Education Minister, Huw Lewis said:
"Our Live in Wales: Learn in Welsh? campaign aims to dispel some of the myths around Welsh medium education, such as that non-Welsh speaking parents are unable to help their children with homework and their development.
"Welsh-medium education can offer children new skills and can be a very enriching experience. We know that some parents are put-off because of a lack of understanding of the support available for those who are non-Welsh speaking. Our campaign aims to inform and reassure parents when making the important decision about their child’s education."
The growth in Welsh-medium education has been very successful, especially in the Caerphilly area which has seen the largest growth across Wales in Welsh-medium education during the last ten years. As people said in Y Gynhadledd Fawr, building on this success is key to ensuring the language continues to thrive.
For further information about the campaign, parents can visit the Welsh Government website and the Choice-Dewis facebook page.
I've tried to find a copy of the booklet featured in the video and on the facebook page, but can't find it. So to me, it looks like a very half-hearted start all round. It matches the tone of what Carwyn Jones said in the Newyddion 9 interview. Instead of emphasizing the benefits, his message was, "Well, it's up to parents. There's nothing stopping them."
Let's hope it gets better.
Today's Guardian reported that ministers in Westminster and Cardiff have welcomed the UK Government's response to the Silk Commission as something that will "hand over a raft of financial powers to Wales".
Never has a description been quite so apt.
If they had implemented Silk's recommendations in full, Wales would have received something rather more useful.
Just ahead of the SNP government's white paper on independence, the Scottish Green Party today launched their own campaign for a Yes vote in next year's independence referendum.
I think it's worth highlighting this line from the BBC report:
The Greens' message here this morning is that they're not nationalists. Instead, the party's belief in independence is rooted in a desire to transform politics and society. It's the kind of radical change, they argue, that Westminster is increasingly unlikely to deliver.
It echoes something that I've said before, but want to say again. Many of us in Plaid Cymru want independence for unashamedly nationalistic reasons: we believe that the people of Wales should decide how Wales is governed because that's what nearly every other nation in the world is able to do, and we deserve no less. That's a good reason to want independence and one that I fully support.
But some of us perhaps don't understand that others are indifferent—and sometimes quite opposed—to nationalism, and want independence not so much on principle, but more reluctantly, because they have come to realize it is the only alternative to being dragged along the ever-rightward political path that the UK has been relentlessly following for the past three decades, and is clearly going to continue to follow whether led by blue Tories or red Tories.
This is what the Greens in Scotland have decided is best for Scotland, and I have every reason to believe that people with the same views in Wales will come to the same conclusion. With that in mind, I'd recommend reading the Vision for Independence that the Scottish Greens have just published.
Much as I like the SNP, this is rather more "spiky" ... and therefore more in tune with many of our values in Plaid Cymru.
In this post yesterday, I criticized Plaid Cymru for not publishing any detail about our proposal for a sugary drinks tax or levy. As it happens, this was not entirely our fault because we had produced an article that explained the proposal in much greater detail. We asked the Western Mail to publish it, but they refused to do so.
This is an important policy from a party that might well lead the next Welsh Government after 2016. It impacts on two policy fields which are of crucial importance to Wales.
The first is that we have an obesity crisis that is getting worse. Dr Nadim Haboubi, a consultant at Nevill Hall hospital in Abergavenny and chair of the National Obesity Forum for Wales has said:
[Wales' obesity problem is] huge, massive, worse than England, worse than anywhere in the UK and among the worst in the western world, I would argue. The worst is probably the USA but we're certainly not far behind.
It's a drastic epidemic and it's worsening. It's because of so many reasons, such as inequalities, social deprivation and unemployment.
The second factor is that we have an acute shortage of doctors in Wales. This is from an article in the Daily Post in June:
Call to act now over Wales' doctor shortage crisis
Wales has fewer doctors per head of population than Kazakhstan and Moldova and lies 22nd in a league table of 24 European countries for clinical staff, Plaid Cymru claimed.
Analysis of World Health Organization figures showed Wales had 24 physicians per 10,000 people compared to 38 in Kazakhstan and 36 in Moldova. Only Poland and Romania employed fewer doctors by comparison.
Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said that the Welsh Government had to tackle urgently its doctor recruitment problems if district general hospitals were to function properly. A shortage of clinicians has been a major factor in decisions over where to site specialist services, and were a key consideration in the suggested move of intensive care for premature babies to the Wirral. Ms Wood said: “These figures highlight the long term failure by the Welsh Government to effectively plan for the recruitment of doctors.”
Ceredigion AM Elin Jones said Plaid Cymru propose financial incentives to encourage graduate doctors to stay and work in Wales; investment to encourage talented Welsh students to study medicine; and promotion of Wales as a place to live and work, with increased recruitment from other EU nations. She said: “It is essential that the Welsh Government takes action to increase the number of doctors recruited to Wales. Wales is currently in the EU relegation zone when it comes to the number of doctors.”
Dr Richard Lewis, British Medical Association secretary in Wales, said: “The inadequate number of doctors applies to general practitioner numbers as well as hospital doctors. It is little wonder some patients find difficulty in accessing appointments in general practice. The answer isn’t in asking more of the already stretched GP numbers, but in increasing the GP workforce to adequate levels.”
To which I would add that decisions like the one to downgrade Accident and Emergency services at Llanelli from a doctor-led service to a nurse-led service, as reported here, would not be necessary if we did not have a such a shortage of doctors.
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It amazes me that the Western Mail should refuse to publish details of a policy that would make a big difference in two areas which are of such major concern to the Welsh public. It speaks volumes about the paucity of serious news coverage in Wales. The editors and proprietors of Western Mail should, quite frankly, be ashamed of themselves. It is blatant political bias which, on this occasion, allowed Carwyn Jones to both blatantly misrepresent our policy and claim that we had been "entirely silent" about it. We weren't silent, we were gagged.
This is the article that we asked the Western Mail to publish, which is has now been put up on the Plaid Cymru website:
Leanne Wood on the sugary drinks levy
A Plaid Cymru government in 2016 would have tax powers if the recommendations of the Silk Commission’s first report are implemented.
The Silk Commission says that Welsh Government should be able to adopt new and innovative taxes, particularly those with policy ‘nudge’ implications, like our proposed sugary drinks tax.
We have long had ‘nudge’ taxes to reduce consumption of tobacco and alcohol products and our sugary drinks tax should also be considered a public health issue.
Across the former coalfields of the south, more than 60% of the population are overweight. Excess calories contribute to weight increase. Rising levels of type 2 diabetes suggests a further link with sugary products.
Although innovative in Wales, taxing sugary drinks is not unique. The majority of US states have some form of ‘soda excise tax’ while Finland and Hungary both tax these products. A new tax was introduced in France last year and the Republic of Ireland has been considering the idea for some time.
According to the British Soft Drinks Association, an average of 227 litres of soft drinks is consumed per person per year. 39% of these are ‘regular’ drinks compared with 61% which are low calorie or no added sugar products. However, products with no added sugar can still be high in sugar, and can often contain other ingredients which are not good for you in excess, such as caffeine or aspartame.
The BSDA distinguish between a range of products. These include carbonated drinks (such as cola drinks), dilutables (such as squash), fruit juice and smoothies, still and juice drinks, energy and sports drinks (with energy drinks in particular often having large quantities of both sugar and caffeine), as well as bottled water.
61% of carbonated drinks consumed are considered ‘regular’ sugary drinks alongside 24% of dilutables and 58% of still and juice drinks.
Final details for a sugary drinks tax would be ironed out in consultation and legislation, of course. Plaid Cymru would consider the inclusion of all drinks which include additional sugar, as well as those which are high in natural sugars such as fruit juices and smoothies.
The Party of Wales believes that fruit juices and smoothies cause no problems when drunk in moderation, and will consider whether a full or reduced level of tax should be levied.
Our proposals are for a 20p per litre tax on sugary drinks (broadly 7p on a 330ml can, or 10p on a 500ml bottle).
We propose a tax on volume rather than price for two reasons. A tax on price would allow supermarkets to absorb the increase into the standard cost or discount bulk purchases, removing its impact. A tax on volume ensures consistency of pricing structure. Plaid Cymru considered whether a tax per gram of sugar should be implemented and concluded that this approach will be too complicated to introduce in the short term but should be re-considered at a later date.
Wales drinks approximately 306 million litres of sugared drinks, with a further 58 million litres of fruit juice and smoothies. At the full 20p tax rate on these, the take would be around £72.8 million or £61.2 million not including fruit juice and smoothies.
The overall aim is for public health rather than to raise tax revenues. In France, where the tax rate of 7c per litre was introduced, there was an immediate 3.3% sales drop. Using a higher tax rate, closer to that we suggest, academics estimate an elasticity of demand of around 8-10% for soft drinks.
Assuming a full 10% fall in sugared drink consumption, the tax take would be around £65.5m or £55m without fruit juices and smoothies.
The public health effect due to reduced consumption, based on models in the similarly sized Republic of Ireland, would be to reduce obesity by 10,000 people. In total, 15,000 people would no longer be overweight – with all of the related healthcare complications that being obese or overweight create.
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Plaid Cymru is committed to the introduction of 1,000 additional doctors to Wales. Currently, Wales has fewer doctors per head than almost every other country in the European Union and fewer than any other country in the UK.
Wales requires a range of doctors – with different grades and specialisms. Taking the median mid-point pay scale for various types of doctors would give an average wage for a consultant of around £82,000 p.a., general practitioners £70,000 p.a., associate specialists £62,000 and junior doctors around £33,000. There are further on-costs relating to employers’ NI and pension contributions in particular.
Assuming a mix, for example, of 100 consultants, 300 GPs, 200 associate specialists and 400 junior doctors and allowing for 20% for additional on-costs this would be around £66m.
Of course, this would not have to be funded from a hypothecated health tax. Incremental increases in doctor numbers could also be met by providing for an increase in the budget each year. An extra £13m per year over 5 years within the budget for a health priority should not be a problem. Savings from the £50m per year spent on agency and locum staff should also be possible if we have better staffing numbers and availability.
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These are bold, innovative and ambitious Plaid Cymru policies. The Welsh Government says that we can’t do it. We say that we can.
That ‘can do’ attitude and ambition to improve Wales is why Plaid Cymru must be the next Welsh Government.
Much of what will appear on this blog will also appear in the Syniadau Forums, but the emphasis on this blog is slightly different. The forums are focused more on the structures and institutions that Wales will need to develop in order to become a successful independent nation, arranged on a subject by subject basis, but the blog will have more of an emphasis on day to day political news and developments.
People are welcome to reply or leave comments either here or on the Syniadau Forums. If anyone wants to initiate a new subject they are very welcome to do so there.
