Voting against austerity

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales provides, as always, some very useful information about the state of the parties in Wales. This time round, it was quite startling to see that Plaid Cymru's overall support for the upcoming Westminster election has fallen to 10%, but that support for the Greens in Wales has risen by 3% points to 8%, putting them within touching distance of Plaid.

Plaid Cymru's response to this was to launch into an unabashed love-bombing campaign aimed at Green Party supporters in Wales, and what better person to do it than Dafydd Wigley. This is what he said to Adrian Masters.

     

Unsurprisingly, I agree entirely with the idea that the Green Party is the best party to support in England, after all, I've been advocating that for years. But, as Adrian noted, the second part of Plaid's agenda is to ask people in Wales who might be inclined to vote for the Greens to vote for Plaid Cymru instead ... and, as Dafydd admitted, he would be delighted if they did.

The problem is that neither he nor the other leaders of Plaid Cymru have thought things through clearly enough.

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Plaid's biggest electoral problem is that their support in Wales is disproportionately concentrated in just some parts of Wales. Yes, given the unfair nature of the first-past-the-post voting system, Dafydd is right to say that it would make sense for Green voters in the parts of Wales where Plaid is strong to consider voting for Plaid. But, by that same logic, the opposite is true in those parts of Wales where Plaid has now become weaker than the Greens.

For although the headline voting intention in the YouGov poll for Wales as a whole puts Plaid marginally ahead of the Greens, we just need to look at the regional breakdown to see that in some parts of Wales Plaid is now a very poor second behind the Greens. In South Wales Central (which includes Cardiff) support for the Greens is now double the support for Plaid Cymru.

Westminster Voting Intention

All Wales ... Plaid 10% ... Greens 8%

North Wales ... Plaid 9% ... Greens 6%
Mid and West Wales ... Plaid 19% ... Greens 6%
South Wales West ... Plaid 10% ... Greens 6%
South Wales Central ... Plaid 6% ... Greens 12%
South Wales East ... Plaid 5% ... Greens 8%

YouGov Poll for ITV Cymru Wales, 27 January 2015

Obviously things will vary on a constituency by constituency basis. But in general terms, if the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru are to make any inroads in May as a group of parties working together to oppose the austerity agenda that the Tories, Labour and LibDems have each signed up to, then it is better for those who would normally be inclined to vote for Plaid in South Wales Central and South Wales East to vote Green instead. The same is probably true for those in the eastern half of the North Wales electoral region.

The logic of what Dafydd was saying is perfectly valid. He and the rest of the Plaid leadership just hadn't looked carefully enough at the detail.

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36 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good analysis, does this mean your back blogging regularly?

Plaid Cymru are in danger of being totally irrelevant if the polls are in anyway accurate, they've been over taken by UKIP for a while and if the Green Party surge continues they'll over take Plaid Cymru in the Assembly election next year pushing Plaid into 5th place while the SNP are on course for a big boost of MP's and a third term of government in Holyrood.

Anonymous said...

Lots of Plaid people retweeting Green party messages .... not seeing many Greens retweeting Plaid.

Greens have some good policies but the attitue of many of their supporters in Wales is that Wales should be a wildlife park and would be just spiffing if those narrow-minded Welshies didn't spoil everything.

Anonymous said...

Can't take the guy seriously. Nor his party.

How can he say he's against nuclear weapons when he and his cohorts actively campaigned to bring a new, massive nuclear power station to Anglesey. And the reason given was that the island needed the jobs!

A stupid man. A stupid party.

(anonymous because I am not a politician ... no-one pays me to forgo my anonymity)

Anonymous said...

The Green Party support independence for Scotland but not Wales, so I will be sticking with Plaid
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-28484461
I will not vote for a party that considers my country as a second class nation.

Anonymous said...

There is no chance that the Green Party will win any Welsh seat in Westminster - and of course very chance that PC will win up to five seats. Neither party will win a seat in the south east of Wales, so the supporters of the two parties should vote in accordance with their convictions and principles. But in those constituencies where Plaid has a chance of winning, Green Party supporters might consider voting Plaid if they'd like to be represented by someone who shares at least some of their own views. Sadly for the Green Party, I suspect its recent 'surge' in support will have disappeared by the time of the election leaving only disappointment and a long list of lost deposits.

Anonymous said...

Plaid should campaigning for independence. That is the point of its existence. If does not campaign for independence it can not be surprised if people vote for other parties.Nor can it be surprised if people vote Green it it tells them to.
The SNP is successful because it campaigned for independence and had nothing to with unionist parties. Plaid must learn the lesson from Scotland or fail.

green dragon said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
green dragon said...

You need to do more homework Anon 19.18 - in point of fact the Wales Greens accept Wales right to self government, and its right to membership of both the UN and the EU. You must also surely know that there are prominent figures within plaid - most notably Dafydd Ellis Thomas - who are on record as saying they dont believe in independence. So i do hope for your sake you dont live in the vicinity of meirionnydd as you might find yourself struggling to cast a vote at all.

While anon 20.54 is right to say the greens wont win any seats in wales in the british general election in may and that plaid wont win 5 seats, but there is nothing to suggest in all the recent polling evidence that the greens will suffer a long list of lost deposits, i suspect that may be wishful thinking on the part of the poster.

The fact is the greens are going to have their best ever set of election results in Wales in a british general election, which is sure to stand them in good stead for next year's elections to the senedd. And its in those elections the greens can look forward to winning seats in wales - 3 list seats according to the latest projections. And as disappointing as the projections for the number of seats Ukip will get in Wales in 2016 is its comforting to know that more people in Wales will be voting for progressive left of centre anti austerity parties like plaid and the greens than for a right wing pro austerity british nationalist party like ukip.

Anon 15.00 i fear youve been spending too much time on Jac's blog!

Anon 23.33 the scottish greens and the SNP worked closely together in the scottish referendum

Cymro i'r Carn said...

Here's a video of Pippa Bartolotti mocking our accent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eI-T55k7KIw

BoiCymraeg said...

"So i do hope for your sake you dont live in the vicinity of meirionnydd as you might find yourself struggling to cast a vote at all."

Elis-Thomas is not the MP for Meirionydd, nor is he standing to be. He is the area's AM.

Anonymous said...

It is only my opinion, but there appears to be something rather unwholesome about greendragon, bartolotti and others in the green set up in Wales.

green dragon said...

Er yes 'Boi' aware of that - it is that poll in 2016 we were referring to!

A recent statement from Pippa Bartolotti on the welsh language ' anne greagsby...er sorry 'cymru i'r can'...
"Then there is the Welsh language. A Green government would protect it from the ravages of globalisation. Local sustainable communities would help ensure survival of the culture and language. Free higher education courses would promote the language. Under a Green government the language of Wales would thrive exponentially."

link to above statement ,including the greens otherr radical policies for wales, here http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/pippa-bartolotti/labour-green-party_b_6268632.html

Er anon 18.26 something 'unwholesome' about a blog committed to bringing about a socially just and green wales? Something 'unwholesome' about a political leader committed to bringing about a socially just and green wales?

Says everything about your 'rather unwholesome' politics!

Anonymous said...

Nothing unwholesome about those admirable aims, it is just that you and ms bartolotti come across as extremely arrogant individuals. Just reread some of your statements here and on other blogs. They reek of arrogance.

green dragon said...

please give us examples where weve been arrogant?

Anonymous said...

The examples are legion. Just jump to Jac's blog :"Whether you like it or not Treforus the ‘green economy’ is the future for countries like wales – and so are the greens! "http://jacothenorth.net/blog/ignored-constituencies-and-zombie-parties/#comments
Read backwards from there. You tell people not to contribute to the discussion and "leave it to the grownups". Who the hell do you think you are?

green dragon said...

All part of the cut and thrust of grown up debate surely anon ? Indeed a trawl thru virtually any discussion thread on the blog you refer to will reveal comments far far more contentious than anything we might have posted.

Who do we think we are? We are Welsh bloggers who write on events in Wales - and sometimes further afield - from a green left perspective.....and we will continue to do so. And if we think something needs to be said we wont shy away from doing so.

Anonymous said...

No, who do you think you are that you have the right to address people in such a fashion? You are totally dismissive of other views and write AT people in a patronizing and condescending manner. I truly hope that this is a personal trait and not representative of the green movement in Wales as a whole. I can assure you, it is extremely off putting and does no service to your cause.

Anonymous said...

Is the Green Party considering supporting ‪‎Plaid‬ in its 3 target seats? Will they put principles above party? Not a chance. Speaking of principles, in Cardiff Central we have a green candidate who is more active as a 'living dead' act than in any environmental campaigning who drives a gas guzzling camper van and likes flying to Canada and throughout USA for his hols! Like Green Dragon neither left or green.

Anonymous said...

Rising above all the bitchiness, I'd like to wish Michael a happy birthday today.

And I promise I won't tell them how old you are.

green dragon said...

"You are totally dismissive of other views and write AT people in a patronizing and condescending manner"....er isnt that what you are doing here anon 05.46?

While it's interesting that since we started blogging last year support for the Greens in Wales has consistently increased......and while we wouldnt be so arrogant as to try and claim credit for this encouraging development.......it would suggest our posts are far from 'offputting'.with people in Wales. Indeed judging by the traffic our blog is enjoying it would appear there's a lot of interest in what we have to say.

Youre hardly the best person to raise the issue of 'principles' Anne Greagsby (anon 12.09)....before you jumped from the wales greens to plaid cymru in 2013 you used to villify plaid cymru in exactley the same despicable fashion you now routinely troll the wales green party (trolling which sadly appears to have poisoned relations between the two parties).

http://agreenwales.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/are-plaid-behind-online-smear-campaign.html

We have to comment however that we would have liked to have seen plaid putting its anti nuclear 'principles' before party interests with regards to its support for the proposed new nuclear reactor at wylfa b, and we are not only referring to rhun ap iorwerth's decision to enthusiastically support wylfa b, but the fact that when a motion on wylfa b was debated in the senedd in june 2013 plaid AMs - leanne sadly included - abstained rather than vote against....which even the lib dems managed to do. .And we all know what happened to the host of this blog when he raised concerns over plaid's unprincipled stance on wylfa b - he was shamefully kicked out of plaid! (happy birthday from us too by the way michael)

We are not going to dignify your characteristically personal smear of any green candidates with a response anne greagsby, but given your reference to air travel you might like to consider the matter of 'ieaun air'?

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/ieuan-air-link-between-cardiff-7474034

We think our support for syriza in greece, our uncompromising opposition to nuclear power and nuclear weapons, our opposition to privatisation and our staunch defence of the welfare state are ample proof of our green left credentials...but we would invite readers to visit our blog and decide that for themselves!

Anonymous said...

"You are totally dismissive of other views and write AT people in a patronizing and condescending manner"....er isnt that what you are doing here anon 05.46
No. I am not dismissing your views, just questioning your rudeness and arrogance. Are you unable to see the difference. In truth, I agree with almost all your views and that is why I am troubled by your abrasive manner.

Welsh not British said...

Anon 23:33 is spot on, the SNP has nothing to do with BritNat parties because unlike our regional branch of the Englandandwales party, the Scottish Greens are a completely separate party to those in Englandandwales.

Wales really does need a green party of its own to try and breakthrough in the areas where Labour are inpenetrable but unfortunately all we have is another unionist party. That guy with the green dragon on the Polish flag can quote nonsense all he likes but until the greens in Wales realise they can never stand up for Wales until they split from their masters across the border they are just as bad as the other tory parties.

Gwyn Rees said...

Happy birthday, MH. Nice to see you blogging again.

green dragon said...

"In truth, I agree with almost all your views and that is why I am troubled by your abrasive manner" noted anon 16.59.and thankyou for that feeback.

Anonymous said...

Green Dragon, to say Plaid Cymru reneged on the Plaid/Green pact in Ceredigion as you do on your most recent post is at best disingenuous. To refresh your memory:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/porritt-suspension-splits-greens-1385560.html

http://www.academia.edu/6451605/Environmentalism_and_Nationalism_in_the_UK

Thinly veiled attacks masquerading as eagerness for cooperation a credible blog doth not make.


Anonymous said...

Green dragon, Plaid did not renege on anything. As I recall, and I was living in Aber at the time, all the problems emanated from internal Green Party disputes. This is common knowledge and is also well documented. I would write this on your blog but find it impossible to leave comments.

green dragon said...

It was Cynog who initiated the end of the pact anon 18.55, following a split among the welsh greens which resulted in greens campaigning in ceredigion. This split among the welsh greens apparently being prompted by Plaid's continuing support for nuclear power in ynys mon (wylfa) and the then trawsfynydd nuclear plant in Meirionydd. Comments can be submited at the end of each article on greendragon incidentally.

There's nothing 'thinly veiled' about any crticisms we have made of plaid anon 17.54. We have rightly and explicitly criticised them for their frankly untenable position on the issue of nuclear power in Wales and we will continue to do so. As this is an issue which they have now had decades to address but which they have evidently still failed to adopt and maintain a principled stand on.

From the tone of your comments it would also seem you are unaware of this entry on our blog following Leanne's appearance on question time last year :

http://agreenwales.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/so-how-did-leanne-do.html

Anonymous said...

"It was Cynog who initiated the end of the pact anon 18.55, following a split among the welsh greens which resulted in greens campaigning in ceredigion." What does this mean? Makes no sense. I don't think you know what occurred in Ceredigion amongst the greens at the time. They were an EXTREMELY fractious bunch and there were constant internal squabbles. Conflicts and confrontations between Aber versus Ceredigion greens were often quite spectacular to behold. To suggest that a principled split occurred as a result of Plaid "reneging" on anything is farcical. As for comments, I am not suggesting anything sinister, but I am unable to post comments on gd.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
MH said...

One of the basic rules of making comments on this blog is that anyone who wants to quote "facts" to make a point needs to provide a link to the source.

20:00 is free to repost the quote s/he attributed to Pippa Bartolotti if s/he does so.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
MH said...

Be careful. That link had nothing whatsoever to do with what you had quoted her as saying in your 20:00 comment.

Anonymous said...

What was the unreferenced quote concerning?

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
MH said...

It is up to the person who posted the comment to either put up or shut up, not for others to make guesses.

Unless or until s/he does so, I will delete all comments that refer to it.

People who make comments are free to express their opinions. But if they rely on quotes or statistics to lend credibility to those opinions, they must provide links to the source.

MH said...

I note that the person who left the supposed quote by Pippa Bartolotti has not provided a source. This is hardly surprising as it seems typical of malicious nature of many of the assertions that have been made on this thread.

It seems clear to me that one individual, probably Anne Greagsby, is behind many of these.

To provide one example of this, we are invited to believe that Ms Bartolotti is "mocking our accent". And if we look at the comment Anne made to her own video she claims Ms Bartolotti, "mocks Newport people and their accent while accusing them of racism." It will be obvious to anyone who watches this short clip that she was not mocking Newport people, nor their accent, nor accusing them of racism. She was just quoting what one woman said to her. Only someone as fixated as Anne seems to have become could interpret this as an attack on the people of Newport generally. And the same petty malice seems to lie behind this website.

Plaid Cymru have a lot to be ashamed of, not least that this same Anne Greagsby is now on Plaid Cymru's National Council.

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Sadly, it seems that much of this thread has become nothing more than a slanging match. And, on reflection, I was probably wrong to let it go on. However I should warn those concerned (on both sides) that I will not allow the same thing to continue on future threads. People are welcome to contribute, but the points they make must be relevant to the subject at hand. If not, they will be deleted.

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