That isn't something to celebrate, Kay

It's not often that I'll quote Conservative MEP Kay Swinburne, but she did say something interesting on last weekend's Sunday Politics Wales:

"It's critically important to understand where the United Kingdom was in 1979 when [Margaret Thatcher] came in and where it was when she left ...

"In '79 only 15% of the UK's GDP came from private enterprise. By the time she left [in 1990] it had switched so that the majority was now coming from private enterprise. That, for me, is her legacy; and it should be something we celebrate."

If these figures are correct, they show that one of the tenets of nearly all Conservatives is fundamentally wrong. It is clearly untrue to talk about the "wealth-creating private sector" as if it were the only way of creating wealth. Wealth can equally be created by industries that are in public ownership ... and, prior to 1979, most of it was.

All that happened to bring about the change Kay was talking about is that publicly-owned, wealth-creating businesses were sold off cheap, so that the profit they made was fed into the bank accounts of private shareholders instead of being retained for the public good.

That certainly isn't something to celebrate.

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The evil that men do lives after them

Today, the time for private mourning for Margaret Thatcher has come to an end. The state has acceded to her wishes and is giving her a sumptuous public funeral at great expense. So now is the time to speak.

As my oration to mark her death, I can think of nothing more fitting than these two lines from Shakespeare:

I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them.

Julius Caesar: Act 3, Scene 2

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Well done, Cardiff City

Congratulations to the Bluebirds for the impressive achievement of getting into the Premier League with three games to spare.

I'm sure they'll go on to win the Championship as well, but promotion is the real prize.

     

     

Two Welsh teams in the top flight says a lot for the rising quality of Welsh football ... and it will make the derby games even more interesting.

Now let's press for Welsh-language commentary on Match of the Day by pressing the red button.

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Renewable developments on the horizon

This video isn't on the BBC's website in the UK, but I thought it would be good to show some of the solar possibilities that are currently being developed. Renewable energy is much more than wind and tidal power.

     

I'm impressed with both ideas. The idea of silicon-based life forms as an alternative to carbon-based life was often floated on Star Trek; so I smiled at the idea of the current generation of silicon-based photovoltaics being replaced by a carbon-based version.

As for Dan Nocera's artificial leaf, this report in the LA Times only last Friday points to some significant recent improvements to the prototype in the video.

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Not enough Welsh-speaking teachers

This story in WalesOnline about head teachers getting younger reminded me that the General Teaching Council of Wales publishes an annual digest of statistics about teachers and newly qualified teachers. This year's digest is here.

One thing about the statistics is depressingly constant: there is no significant increase in the numbers of teachers who speak Welsh or are able to teach in Welsh. These are the figures for all teachers in Wales, click the image to enlarge it:

  

The percentage of Welsh-speaking teachers would, at first sight, appear to have gone up slightly from 31.7% to 32.5% over the last five years. But the number of teachers that can't speak Welsh has also gone up ... and by even more. All that has actually changed is that the percentage of teachers whose language ability is unknown has gone down. Exactly the same is true for those who are able to teach in Welsh; the apparent small increase from 26.0% to 26.9% is more than offset by the increase in the percentage who can't teach in Welsh.

These are the figures for newly qualified teachers registered in Wales:

  

At least there are no unknowns in these figures, but the increases from 32.3% to 32.8% and 24.9% to 25.3% are so small as to be insignificant. We can also see that the GTCW is persisting with the absurdity of thinking that teachers who can't even speak Welsh, let alone speak it well enough to teach in Welsh, are competent to teach it as a second language. This unprofessionalism (there is simply no other word for it) is the main reason why the standard of Welsh taught in non Welsh-medium schools is so poor.

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These figures are terrible because they will adversely effect the Welsh Government's ability to deliver two of its fundamental educational commitments: the Welsh-medium Education Strategy and the Framework for Learning for the new Foundation Phase.
 

Welsh-medium Education Strategy

The Welsh-medium Education Strategy was published in 2010 and is available here. Fairly obviously, all teachers in Welsh-medium schools (and the Welsh stream of dual stream schools) need to be able do more than speak Welsh, they need to be able to teach in Welsh. But only 26.9% of the current pool of teachers in Wales can do so, and only 25.3% of newly qualified teachers can do so, which means the pool is actually diminishing rather than growing.

The WMES targets for the percentage of children assessed in Welsh to first language standard at Year 2 is 25% by 2015 and 30% by 2020. For Year 9 the figures are 19% and 23%. These targets simply cannot be met without a broadly proportionate number of teachers who are able to teach in Welsh, particularly in the primary sector. In fact the percentage of teachers needed might well be higher because many traditional Welsh-medium schools are in more rural areas with smaller schools and lower than average pupil to teacher ratios.

It's very hard to draw any conclusion other than that the WMES is heading for ignominious failure unless urgent action is taken to turn things around. So far there have been two interim reports on progress to meet the targets in it, which I talked about here and here. Between the first and second reports the percentage of Key Stage 1 assessments in Welsh to first language standard (Outcome 1) was up only 0.1% to 21.9%, and the percentage of Key Stage 3 assessments in Welsh to first language standard (Outcome 2) was up only 0.3% to 16.3%. I don't think it's any coincidence that the minuscule increase in Welsh first language assessments goes hand-in-hand with the minuscule increase in newly qualified teachers who can teach in Welsh.
 

Foundation Phase Framework for Learning

The Framework for Learning is the curriculum that governs the new Foundation Phase for all 3 to 7 year-olds in Wales. It is available here. There are seven major areas of learning, one of which is Welsh.

It's important to realize that this focus on Welsh in the Foundation Phase applies to all schools in Wales, not just Welsh-medium schools. The Framework for Learning spells this out very clearly:

In schools and settings where English is the main medium of communication, children's Welsh language skills should be progressively developed throughout the Foundation Phase by implementing the Welsh Language Development Area of Learning.

During the Foundation Phase, children should learn to use and communicate in Welsh to the best of their ability. Children should listen to Welsh being spoken and respond appropriately in familiar situations, using a range of patterns. They should be encouraged to communicate their needs in Welsh and should be increasingly exposed to Welsh.

Skills are developed through communicating in a range of enjoyable, practical planned activities, and using a range of stimuli that build on and increase children’s previous knowledge and experiences, in safe and stimulating indoor and outdoor learning environments. The children’s oral experiences should be used to develop their reading skills and they should be encouraged to choose and use Welsh reading materials. They should listen to a range of stimuli, including audio-visual material and ICT interactive software in Welsh. Children should be given a range of opportunities to enjoy mark-making and develop their writing skills in Welsh. Language skills learned in one language should support the development of knowledge and skills in another.

I've highlighted the phrase "to the best of their ability" for this reason. As the growth of Welsh-medium education in all parts of Wales demonstrates, children can become competent Welsh speakers to first language standard even when their parents cannot themselves speak Welsh and in areas where very little Welsh is spoken outside school. This shows that every child (except maybe those who have special learning needs) has the ability to use Welsh and communicate in Welsh. So the thing holding children back in non Welsh-medium schools is clearly not their ability to learn Welsh, but the ability of their teachers to teach them Welsh.

This has profound implications. For if we take the Framework for Learning with even an ounce of seriousness, it means that teachers who teach children in the Foundation Phase need to be able to speak Welsh, irrespective of the language category of the school they teach in.

In January of this year, Estyn published a report on Welsh in the Foundation Phase which said this about teaching in non Welsh-medium schools:

Generally, when practitioners' own Welsh is fluent, children's progress in learning Welsh is better. These practitioners use Welsh consistently across all areas of learning. Where there are no confident Welsh-speaking practitioners in a school or setting, the use of Welsh by staff is usually more limited. This means that children hear less Welsh and have less opportunity to practise it. Where there are gaps in practitioners' knowledge, particularly in the grammar, intonation and pronunciation of Welsh, children can learn to speak or pronounce incorrectly. In a few cases, practitioners cannot sustain using Welsh long enough and use a very limited amount of incidental Welsh with the children.

Most settings and schools have very few fluent Welsh-speaking practitioners and many use Welsh television programmes or DVDs to try to compensate for this, so that children can hear more spoken Welsh. However, this approach does not secure sustained progress in learning.

Welsh Language Development in the Foundation Phase – Estyn, January 2013

In many respects this is a statement of the obvious. The GTCW's statistics show that only 32.5% of teachers speak Welsh, and presumably even fewer speak it fluently. Most of these teachers are teaching in Welsh-medium schools (they wouldn't get a job in a Welsh-medium school unless they could) and that means there must be very few Welsh-speaking teachers left over to teach in other schools. There's no exact breakdown, but perhaps as few as one in ten teachers in non Welsh-medium schools can speak Welsh.

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As I see it, there really is only one practical solution to these problems. The Welsh Government must do whatever it takes to substantially increase the number of primary school teachers who can speak Welsh and teach in Welsh.

No-one would want to put existing teachers out of work, so I think it is better for us to focus our efforts on the way we train new teachers. At present, the minimum requirement to be accepted to train as a primary school teacher is an A*-C GCSE in English, maths and a science. We need to extend this (for Foundation Phase teachers at least) to include an A*-C GCSE in Welsh first language as well, or for prospective teachers to be tested to an equivalent standard. Teaching in Welsh as well as English then needs to be made an integral part of the training course.

The Welsh Government will not be able to meet the targets it has set itself in either the Welsh-medium Education Strategy or the Foundation Phase Framework for Learning unless it takes this sort of radical action.

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Imbalances

The EU has just published a further review into the serious macroeconomic imbalances in a number of member states; but what I found more interesting were the imbalances in the way it was reported.

On the BBC website the emphasis was, perhaps rightly, on the worrying situations in Spain and Slovenia; but right at the end they did say that the situation was also serious in eleven other member states, including the UK. What made the reporting bad was that the page carries some prominent red squares about the "Eurozone crisis", yet five of the member states criticized—Bulgaria, Denmark, Hungary, Sweden and the UK—are not even in the Eurozone.

The report was handled even more badly by Reuters. They produced a "factbox" which rightly headlined that the EU report was on thirteen member states, and provided a summary of some of the key points relating to each country. The problem is that they only did this for twelve of the thirteen. The one they conveniently "forgot" to include was the UK. And because Reuters is a news agency, a large number of newspapers and other news media have reproduced the Reuters story almost word for word, therefore perpetuating the imbalance.

For those who are interested enough to get the news from the horse's mouth, the EU report is available from this page, together with in-depth reviews for each of the member states investigated.

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One of the things that has particularly struck me over than last few years is the way in which the mainstream media have consistently reported what is essentially a debt crisis as a "Eurozone crisis", as if they have a deliberate agenda to present it as a problem which affects "them" rather than "us". This just isn't true. It's the ugly face of a UK isolationism that has become almost endemic. The UK has enormous levels of debt, and while it is true that UK government debt is bad but not as bad as elsewhere, private debt is very much larger making the overall situation in the UK worse than it is for any other large economy. This graphic from Bloomberg Businessweek is about eighteen months old, but it illustrates the scale of the UK's problem relative to other economies.

Not an awful lot has changed since then, and the UK's precarious level of overall debt is one of the main points in the EU report. It's worth noting that government debt is continuing to rise because the deficit between the UK government's income and expenditure has not been brought under control. The UK goverment is certainly cutting public spending with a vengance, but the other side of the equation is income from taxation. While I accept that lowering the tax burden at the bottom end of the scale is a good thing because it means that people have more money to spend on basic consumer goods and services, it doesn't apply to people on middle and high incomes because they will always have enough money to spend on basic goods and services. Fear of properly taxing those on middle incomes is the main reason why the UK is making no headway in reducing its debt.

A second point that is worth noting from the report is that the massive devaluation of the pound since 2008 has only had a very limited effect in boosting exports. One point that most economic commentators in the mainstream media have made ad nauseam over the last few years is that being "tied to the euro" means that the traditional route of currency devaluation is not available, and that countries with a debt problem should therefore get out of the euro and revert to their old currencies so that they can solve their debt problem by devaluation. The idea is that it boost exports by making them cheaper and reduces imports by making them more expensive, allowing the country to trade back into health in the long term. However it certainly isn't having that effect for the UK, and that should put a question mark over whether it would work anywhere else. I suspect their real agenda is to break up the eurozone and, with a bit of luck (from their perspective), bring down the euro itself. I think that's always been a forlorn hope.

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But I want to end on a positive note. From Wales' perspective, I think it would be worth noting this part of the EU's in-depth review for the UK:

As regards the challenge of increasing external competitiveness, many of the drivers of the UK's persistent trade deficit relate to structural weaknesses that disproportionately impact upon capital-intensive sectors and goods' producers.

Firstly, the competitiveness of the UK economy could be boosted by addressing shortages in airport and seaport capacity, by tackling road congestion and by upgrading the rail network. This would entail meeting the substantial transport infrastructure investment needs indicated in the National Infrastructure Plan 2011, much of which is currently unfunded, by identifying additional sources of funding, addressing high unit costs in transport, and removing regulatory barriers to investment.

Secondly, industrial producers require a labour force with the correct advanced and intermediate technical skills, an area where evidence suggests that gaps and recruitment difficulties persist. Ensuring that the National Apprenticeship Programme effectively equips participants with the professional and technical skills demanded by the tradable sectors of the economy can contribute to closing the skills gap and fostering export performance.

Finally, access to finance is crucial for UK firms seeking to enter, or expand in, exporting sectors. Difficulties in accessing finance are a cross-cutting problem at the current juncture, particularly for smaller and younger companies. It is important that they be addressed at an economy-wide level as well as through specific financing instruments for exporting companies.

UK in-depth review, p4-5

What is true on a UK scale is just as true for Wales. For if the main problem with the UK economy is over-reliance on services at the expense of investment and producing goods, then a smart Welsh government would be able to put Wales ahead of the other countries in the UK by concentrating on these things.

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European GDP figures for Wales

When the EU figures for regional GDP are published each spring, the headline is usually that parts of Wales are poorer than some far-flung parts of eastern Europe. True, but somewhat selective. So I thought I'd present a fuller picture.

Wales is divided into two NUTS 2 regions: East Wales, and West Wales and the Valleys. In the first map, the regions that are poorer than West Wales and the Valleys are in green and the regions that are richer are in yellow, adjusted for relative purchasing power between member states, though not within them. The images and data are from here.

     

As we can see, it's bad. Apart from a handful of poor regions in Spain, Portugal and southern Italy, West Wales and the Valleys is the poorest region in the whole of Western Europe.

But the picture for East Wales is quite different. In the second map, the regions that are poorer than East Wales are in green and the regions that are richer are in yellow. East Wales sits comfortably in the middle.

     

Perhaps it's more informative to zoom in and look at the position of East Wales within the UK.

     

East Wales has a higher GDP per head than any part of northern England or the Midlands, with the sole exceptions of Cheshire (which is greyed out in the image, but should be yellow) and Leicestershire/Rutland/Northamptonshire. East Wales ranks above Manchester and Birmingham, and also above Kent, Essex and outer London. These are the figures:

GDP per capita in euros, PPS

Inner London ... 80,300
North Eastern Scotland ... 39,500
Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire ... 34,900
Cheshire ... 28,800
Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Bristol/Bath area ... 28,200
Surrey, East and West Sussex ... 27,900
Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire ... 27,500
Hampshire and Isle of Wight ... 26,700
Eastern Scotland ... 26,600
Leicestershire, Rutland and Northamptonshire ... 25,400
East Wales ... 24,600
East Anglia ... 24,500
South Western Scotland ... 24,300
Greater Manchester ... 23,500
Outer London ...23,400
West Midlands ... 23,300
West Yorkshire ... 23,300
Cumbria ... 23,000
Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire ... 23,000
North Yorkshire ... 22,800
Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire ... 22,500
Dorset and Somerset ... 22,500
Kent ... 22,000
Essex ... 21,800
Northumberland and Tyne and Wear ... 21,500
Devon ... 21,400
Highlands and Islands ... 21,400
Northern Ireland ... 21,000
Lancashire ... 20,400
East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire ... 19,900
Shropshire and Staffordshire ... 19,900
South Yorkshire ... 19,900
Merseyside ... 19,800
Lincolnshire ... 19,100
Tees Valley and Durham ... 18,900
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly ...17,600
West Wales and The Valleys ... 17,200

PDF version

Statistics can be used to say almost anything, for Wales as a whole is still poorer than any other NUTS 1 region of the UK. The demarcation between East Wales and West Wales and the Valleys is contrived, to say the least. It doesn't follow any natural boundary, but was deliberately chosen so as to make West Wales and the Valleys as poor as possible relative to the rest of Wales in order to maximize the chances of obtaining EU structural and convergence funding. That stroke of genius has resulted in us getting billions of euros more than we would otherwise have got from the EU over the years ... I only wish the same genius had been around when it came to spending it.

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