An opinion poll by OUC was published over the weekend, and the results are very encouraging:
In the Arenys de Munt referendum in September, the Yes vote was 96.2% on a turnout of 41% ... which represents an absolute figure of 39.4%. So this poll shows that opinion in Catalunya as a whole is even more firmly in favour of independence than in that single town.
The second thing, and something that surprises me, is the very high percentage of people who said that they would not vote; nearly a quarter. If that remained the case in a Catalunya-wide official vote on independence it would mean that the Yes percentage would be between 66.8% and 76.4% of the vote, depending on how the don't knows would split. If the don't knows are factored out, the Yes vote would be 73.9%.
In any referendum there will be those that vote Yes, those that vote No and a group that doesn't mind one way or the other. If they did, they'd get out and vote. But there is something very satisfying about getting an absolute majority of the electorate as a whole.
Now we just need to see if the results on Sunday match this poll. The sample size was 2,600, so the margin of error should be lower than the polls we are used to here ... 2% instead of 3%
The poll found that a total of 82.6% want to have an official referendum on independence. As I see it, the key factor in the impending ruling of the Spanish Constitutional Court will not be over the "headline issue" of whether Catalunya can call it self a "nation" or not. The key part of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy is whether the Catalan government is able to legally hold official consultative referenda.
If that principle is upheld (the Spanish State was able to block the Ibarretxe referendum in Euskadi this time last year) the EU had better start shuffling the chairs to make room for an extra member next year.