tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post8311206916297449661..comments2024-03-27T18:54:46.951+00:00Comments on Syniadau :: The Blog: Musings on a Sunday lunchtimeSyniadauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13876017048168055247noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-42633178413191116792016-02-29T00:21:42.161+00:002016-02-29T00:21:42.161+00:00I'm not sure I could make a list, 19:38. Let&...I'm not sure I could make a list, 19:38. Let's just say that, of current prominent Labour politicians, Owen Smith and Chris Bryant are prime examples of those focused almost entirely on Britain as a nation ... while Mark Drakeford, Leighton Andrews and Carwyn Jones are more centred on Wales as a nation. <br /><br />One politician who might prove interesting is Huw Irranca Davies. He has chosen to switch from being an MP to being an AM and will almost certainly be a cabinet minister. He might well become the next leader after Carwyn, although if he harbours that ambition, he's going to have to start speaking Welsh. Another heavyweight coming to the Senedd (who doesn't have that problem) is Eluned Morgan. She's not number one on the MWW list, so she might find she's in a fight for the fourth seat list if Lee Waters wins in Llanelli. These two might play quite a big part in shaping the direction of Welsh Labour over the next few years. <br /><br />-<br /><br />I miss Adam's blog too, Democritus. He and I had some fierce arguments, because he had a sharp mind and was tenacious ... well, we were both tenacious, and that made it very hard to <b>end</b> any argument. He really kept me on my toes. I'm not sure what he's doing now, but his brother Duncan is active for Plaid with Bethan Jenkins. Wales Home is another site that I miss. <br /><br />I wonder what effect Jeremy Corbyn will have on Labour in Wales. It is clear that the current Welsh government wants to distance itself from him, but I don't think that is particularly because they agree or disagree with the direction in which he wants to take the party. It's more a case of "steady as she goes, and don't rock the boat". Labour in Wales doesn't <b>need</b> to change anything in order to stay in government ... at least not for this year's election.<br /><br />As I see it, Project Corbyn is all about changing the Labour Party from the grassroots up. The almost universal attacks on Corbyn were aimed at bundling him out before he had a chance to do this. But they haven't worked, in fact they've just come across as silly and hysterical. It's a project of several years to get the right people into the right parts of the party apparatus, and to use that to change party policy in good time for the 2020 election. The next couple of Labour conferences will be critical. The big question is whether the policy overhaul will make this more unashamedly left wing Labour Party credible in England. If it works, then I think Labour in Wales will happily see it as narrowing the Clear Red Water. It will also mean that Plaid Cymru will find it all but impossible to keep playing the "we are what Labour always used to be, but gave up on" card. <br /><br />But if it doesn't work, and UK Labour turn back to the right following a big defeat in 2020, it might well prove to be too much for Labour in Wales and Scotland, and we might end up with Welsh and Scottish Labour Parties like the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria" rel="nofollow">CSU</a> in Bavaria; separate in organization and policy position from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany" rel="nofollow">CDU</a>, but always expected to act in coalition.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-58923664970957064862016-02-28T20:13:14.690+00:002016-02-28T20:13:14.690+00:00To put it another way: Bears defecate in woods, co...To put it another way: Bears defecate in woods, councillors support stronger local govt, AMs and MEPs want more powers, MPs are reluctant to surrender their current powers either up or down and the pope is catholic ...Democritushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06749137742833103823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-63181867158850041382016-02-28T19:52:18.253+00:002016-02-28T19:52:18.253+00:00I don't think or suggest that most Labour memb...I don't think or suggest that most Labour members perceive any great difference between the interests of working people in Wrexham or the Wirral. There's a clue in the name. They are not at root a nationalist party but a class movement. Such preferences as do exist are shaped by circumstances and situations more than ideology. Devolution has changed Welsh Labour and IMHO will continue to do so.Democritushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06749137742833103823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-27457600724158346342016-02-28T19:38:57.740+00:002016-02-28T19:38:57.740+00:00On the subject of Welsh national interest labour v...On the subject of Welsh national interest labour v British national interest Labour. It would be interesting to see a list of who is in which camp.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-39243030600789514912016-02-28T18:45:41.958+00:002016-02-28T18:45:41.958+00:00It's a shame Adam Higgit doesn't blog anym...It's a shame Adam Higgit doesn't blog anymore.<br /><br />Thing about the Welsh/British identity divide in Labour is that it cuts across standard left/right perspectives. This has resulted in some recent controversies on the left of WL in particular as it has been swollen by lots of new entrants joining because of an attachment to the UK party Leader, but finding the established left in Welsh Labour committed to their pro-devolution clear red water position - which effectively means supporting Welsh Govt's positions and resisting interference. Longer term it's also clear that Welsh Labour's centre of gravity has shifted as a consequence of being in opposition in London. Quite simply from 1999 until 2010 most Labour members in Wales were more or less content for Welsh Ministers to try and keep up with a UK Labour government that was investing substantially in health and education, leading to big increases in the Welsh Block Grant. Clear Red Water at least in the devolved fields essentially came down to rejecting marginal 'New' Labour initiatives like testing pupils or foundation hospitals. Outright opponents of devolution meanwhile either retired or accommodated and Rhodri consolidated his hold to the extent that there was no question of London's high command ever exercising the sort of influence it had in 1999 again. This was cemented by Carwyn's election as his successor - despite being the least obviously socialist out of Edwina, Huw & himself Carwyn was by this point considered the safest pair of hands by a healthy plurality of party members and has a mandate equal to that of Corbyn, albeit 7 years older.<br /><br />The contingencies of governing in Wales for the forseeable future combined with the increasing unlikelihood of ever again winning a UK wide majority will undoubtedly result in further evolutions within Welsh Labour over the coming decade. It is likely that after the election there will be a shake-up in the relatively shoestring Transport House operation, particularly if the Welsh party machine is reckoned to have underperformed again. Although these appointments are formally made by the NEC, not the WEC, Carwyn will presumably largely get his way in this because it matters to him more than it does the London leadership, but the appointments will give some interesting pointers to the shifts underway beneath the surface ...Democritushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06749137742833103823noreply@blogger.com