tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post3390695493850241586..comments2024-03-07T18:57:39.865+00:00Comments on Syniadau :: The Blog: This weekend's election in CatalunyaSyniadauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13876017048168055247noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-75983782334716063052012-11-28T12:32:49.401+00:002012-11-28T12:32:49.401+00:00Just to make a further comment on the left-right n...Just to make a further comment on the left-right nature of politics when an Anon said this-<br /><br />"The Labour party in Wales for all it's rhetoric, is in many ways a more 'Christian Democrat' regionalist party. That's one reason they're in power. They're not in power because they are 'radical', socialist or quote Raymond Williams. They're in power precisely because conservative."<br /><br />This is exactly the critique used by the left in Plaid. The Plaid left sees Labour in Wales as being a stale, conservative entity. Leanne Wood used the example of Labour in the Rhondda to show why she instead joined Plaid. She is the kind of person that is socialist and would quote Raymond Williams, but Labour in Wales generally aren't. Alot of people who would be Conservatives in England end up in Labour in Wales (because it is the route to influence and security if not outright power), particularly in the valleys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-44438042898344313212012-11-26T22:31:27.318+00:002012-11-26T22:31:27.318+00:00Sorry, that's www.vilaweb.catSorry, that's www.vilaweb.cat <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-44389342890287191572012-11-26T20:31:40.248+00:002012-11-26T20:31:40.248+00:00The communist pro-independence party CUP also got ...The communist pro-independence party CUP also got into parliament for the first time, and the Greens (pro-independence) got 3 more seats, but SI lost their 4 seats. There's a net gain for independence and a substantial swing to the left. CiU has been pretty unpopular in government despite the moves toward independence. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-25523271259261455522012-11-26T20:22:58.535+00:002012-11-26T20:22:58.535+00:00Anon 19.26
_Follow Catalan news on www.cataloniad...Anon 19.26<br /><br />_Follow Catalan news on www.cataloniadirect.info which has links to other Catalan sites in English.<br /><br />I also read www.vikaweb.cat daily. If you use googlechrome as your serch engine you can get on scren translation. Easy.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-13037910358160129112012-11-26T20:01:05.714+00:002012-11-26T20:01:05.714+00:00The Guardian correspondent reporting on the Catala...The Guardian correspondent reporting on the Catalan elections - from Madrid.<br /><br />It looks like he just shoved copy from the Madrid press into Google translate.Padshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16372778051663029718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-82831396113161609852012-11-26T19:26:13.171+00:002012-11-26T19:26:13.171+00:00ERC will not compromise one jot on holding a refer...ERC will not compromise one jot on holding a referendum. This result gives the idea of a referendum momentum. CiU can't back out now, and most of their members and voters don't want to back out. An agreed process needs to be drawn up so that one can be held and internationally monitored. What we need to see now is a clear statement of intent from Mas. I don't follow Catalan news as much as i'd like so will try and watch the English language blogs from there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-54536598367661666822012-11-26T15:31:34.998+00:002012-11-26T15:31:34.998+00:00MH good stuff as usual.
The best, clearest and sh...MH good stuff as usual.<br /><br />The best, clearest and shortest round up of what this vote means is on the link to Catalonia Direct which on the right hand side of this page http://www.cataloniadirect.info/<br /><br />It'd be worth the Guardian, Spanish and Brit nats reading. Basically, there's no turning back. The independence movement has a clear and solid majority.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-82264294537095288962012-11-26T12:41:11.215+00:002012-11-26T12:41:11.215+00:00Absurd coverage. Mas and CiU have only come out fo...Absurd coverage. Mas and CiU have only come out for indepedence about eighteen months ago. Pro-independence forces have been numerically strengthened in this election. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-25440044374546415442012-11-26T11:03:40.106+00:002012-11-26T11:03:40.106+00:00And as if by magic...
Catalan separatists 'fa...And as if by magic...<br /><br /><i>Catalan separatists 'fall short of majority' in elections</i><br /> <br />From <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/25/catalan-separatists-fall-short-elections" rel="nofollow">The Guardian</a>. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-roberts" rel="nofollow">Martin Roberts</a> doesn't even try to hide his positionRhyshttp://www.gwenu.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-55801720569210331822012-11-26T10:55:12.233+00:002012-11-26T10:55:12.233+00:00Thanks for the covereage and discussion. As you s...Thanks for the covereage and discussion. As you said at 19:50, MH, the media in Britain has been predictable. Radio 4 seems to identify independence as a personal policy of Mas and his party and have no sense of a wider political movement. The Guardian is telling us that the result is a "blow" to "separatists" and Mas will now need the support of "hardliners". Meanwhile the BBC's correspondent in Spain said on the BBC World Service last night that the winners were the central government in Madrid and their main bulletin headlines played a clip of a woman saying something along the lines that she was very afraid and had been to countries which had become independent and saw how they regretted it (played again during the main body of the report). <br />EfrogwrEfrogwrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08743089894656954100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-45733334759951541052012-11-26T10:47:49.786+00:002012-11-26T10:47:49.786+00:00A fantastic result for ERC to become the main part...A fantastic result for ERC to become the main party of the left in Catalonia. CiU's drop has unfortunately allowed foreign media to portray the election as a failure to get a referendum mandate. But ERC now has a very strong position to put pressure on CiU to deliver a referendum process, though it won't be easy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-15731800575627983482012-11-26T01:03:18.614+00:002012-11-26T01:03:18.614+00:00Spot on, MH.
A new political cycle begins. ERC a...Spot on, MH. <br /><br />A new political cycle begins. ERC as you say may find it easier to give point-by-point support, helping them to avoid some, but not all, of the toxicity which CiU will continue to receive due to the cuts. However, this will be a strange legislature in the sense that it will prepare the way for a referendum deemed unconstitutional as well as providing government and a parliament. 87 seats is 3 short of the 90 from 135 needed to garner legitimacy and a mirror image of the 2/3 needed to change the Spanish constitution, so if ERC hold strong, and they will need to, a referendum could be brought forward in the following 4 years. There is now no doubt, despite Madrid's media tonight, that in the case of a referendum going ahead, a majority in favour of secession is extremely possible. However, would the referendum threshold be pegged at? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-17476107551311298022012-11-26T00:55:55.791+00:002012-11-26T00:55:55.791+00:00The final figures (well 99.89%) are in:
CiU ... ...The final figures (well 99.89%) are in: <br /><br />CiU ... 50 (-12)<br />ERC ... 21 (+11)<br />PSC ... 20 (-8)<br />PP ... 19 (+1)<br />ICV ... 13 (+3)<br />Cs ... 9 (+6)<br />CUP ... 3 (+3)<br />SI ... 0 (-4)<br /><br />In terms of the parties in favour of a referendum and independence immediately before the election there has been a marginal swing in favour of independence:<br /><br />Total for 87 (was 86)<br />Total against 48 (was 49)<br /><br />But you can bet that most of the media will not pick up on this and will portray the result as a setback for independence because of CiU's poor showing.<br /><br />However in terms of left and right there has been a very significant swing to the left, and the balance is now almost exactly equal:<br /><br />Total left 66 (was 51)<br />Total right 69 (was 80)<br /><br />SI did have 4 seats in the last parliament, but they only wanted independence and were neutral on everything else, so I've not put them on either side.<br /><br />-<br /><br />First reactions are that Artur Mas was probably relying on getting 60 seats and planning on getting a working majority with support from a dozen or so ERC seats. The figures might be different, but they still add up to the same thing. So that option is every bit as workable as before for CiU. That will be CiU's favoured option.<br /><br />However ERC might now have reason to think twice. As well as the option of working with CiU, ERC can probably work with CUP and ICV, but they definitely won't work with the PSC. They will want to consolidate their new (and probably unexpected) mantle as the main party of the left, so they won't offer the PSC the lifeline of being in government. But that means the left cannot form a government. Nor could anyone in ERC, CUP or ICV work with the Cs, anyway.<br /><br />So ERC have the option of either forming a coalition with CiU to influence all policy areas (both constitutional and day-to-day) from within, or act as a constructive opposition on day-to-day economic matters, but support CiU on the route to independence. I think the second is the better option, for if they choose to work with CiU, then the PSC becomes the official opposition. It would mean the PSC get another lifeline. <br /><br />So I think CiU will remain in power with Mas as president of the Generalitat, but that CiU will now have to ameliorate the cuts programme. In normal circumstances CiU could have relied on support from the PP on cuts, but they certainly can't work with them now. If we bear in mind that ERC and CUP will invariably be opposed to the PP on every conceivable subject, a CiU minority government is a workable, even though uncomfortable, option. <br /><br />I don't subscribe to the view that Oriel Pujol will knife Mas. At least not yet. He seems to be winning friends in Brussels, so let him continue to do that. Working things out with the EU is the one critical thing that needs to be negotiated. But if Mas fails or gets bogged down and a different face is needed, Oriel Pujol is waiting in the wings and can come on as a super-sub.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-63695025723689584462012-11-25T20:52:02.616+00:002012-11-25T20:52:02.616+00:00Agreed. A big majority in favour.
But bear in ...Agreed. A big majority in favour. <br /><br />But bear in mind that the figures are an exit poll. The real results are coming in now. They show the PSC doing better, but I think that's only because the PSC are strongest in Barcelona, and that those constituencies come in before the more remote areas.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-15145225715865584702012-11-25T20:39:43.690+00:002012-11-25T20:39:43.690+00:00CiU. 54-57
ERC 20-23
ICV 10-12
CUP. 6
In total. ...CiU. 54-57<br />ERC 20-23<br />ICV 10-12<br />CUP. 6<br /><br />In total. 90-98 seats for pro-independence/referendum parties.<br />Ie 67-73 per cent of all seats.<br />Is this a fair summary of the exit polls?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-52907730359692230352012-11-25T20:15:28.316+00:002012-11-25T20:15:28.316+00:00Could be turning into an unbelievable night for ER...Could be turning into an unbelievable night for ERC. A great time to be in the national left!<br /><br />ERC will push Mas and CiU all the way to independence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-497373755893062412012-11-25T19:50:01.216+00:002012-11-25T19:50:01.216+00:00What seems to have happened (if the exit polls are...What seems to have happened (if the exit polls are right) is that the left hand side of the political spectrum has shifted from being primarily Spanish (the PSC) to being primarily Catalan. It's a great result for ERC (if they get more than 23 it will be their best ever performance) and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Unity_Candidates" rel="nofollow">CUP</a> are another unashamedly pro-independence group. Together they have 25-29 seats. The ICV are pro-referendum, though maybe a little less hot on independence. But they will go with the flow. Now it has become clear that a majority want independence, they will want it too. That puts the broad left independence vote at 35-41 seats. <br /><br />Artur Mas will be disappointed to have lost so many seats. He would have hoped for the magic 60. But CiU are still the largest party by a long way. Mas will still lead the Generalitat.<br /><br />Its likely that the media here and CiU's opponents will present it as a blow to independence aspirations. But that's only because they made the mistake of thinking that Mas was the one leading the independence movement. Tonight's message is that independence is not <b>only</b> about Mas and the CiU, and that it's not a right or centre-right thing. It's something that has caught hold across the whole left-right spectrum.<br /><br />It's good. It means that CiU can't shape a newly independent Catalunya into one particular mold. CiU will have to reach out to be wider and more inclusive.<br /><br />I'm sure that Mas was relying on the ERC to make up the handful of seats he needed for a majority. But with ERC a very solid second, <b>they</b> have the right to be the opposition that the PSC would have hoped to be. If they work with CUP and/or ICV Catalunya will be in the position of having a pro-independence government <b>and</b> opposition. The Spanish parties will be reduced to also-rans.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-52918121115478918482012-11-25T19:37:12.293+00:002012-11-25T19:37:12.293+00:00Those exit polls look interesting, heading for an ...Those exit polls look interesting, heading for an historic night by the looks of things - real results permitting. Could Catalonia beat Scotland to the "exit"?<br /><br />The EU might not have any formal stance or policies on "internal enlargement" - amongst all its other problems at the moment - but I think the time's coming where they'll need to draft some.Owenhttp://oggybloggyogwr.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-53037834102811560372012-11-25T19:08:20.050+00:002012-11-25T19:08:20.050+00:00Cs ... 6-7 ... as expected
CUP ... 5-6 ... a big s...Cs ... 6-7 ... as expected<br />CUP ... 5-6 ... a big surprise. They are another pro-independence group, but I thought would be lucky to get a set.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-69166693571826971172012-11-25T19:05:33.552+00:002012-11-25T19:05:33.552+00:00I'm not saying that ERC thought that independe...I'm not saying that ERC thought that independence was a viable option in the short term, just that independence was what they wanted, and that they thought the 2006 SoA as passed would have made that goal harder rather than easier to achieve. <br /><br />Who can say for sure what would have happened? ... but I think that if the TC had <b>not</b> struck down parts of it, Catalans would probably have had no reason to get so angry. They'd have thought that Spain was benign and that they would eventually get more autonomy, not realizing that it might have been twenty years before the chance came to take another step. A state so defined by its constitution can't take a series of little steps in the way that the UK can. <br /><br />Although they won't like it, the PP have to take a good deal of the credit for the sea change in favour of independence, just as the Tories under Thatcher have to take the credit for the huge sea change that allowed devolution to become a reality in 1997 after all seemed lost in 1979. The PSOE also need to be thanked, because they <b>could</b> have stood up for the SoA. Their failure showed that <b>neither</b> of the main Spanish parties wanted Spain to move to a more federal system. The PSC may say they want it now, but it's all to late.<br /><br />-<br /><br />But, as you say, that's history now. Oddly, what has happened today is exactly what Reagrupament wanted to happen in 2010. Namely an election that was all about independence. CiU weren't interested in that then, they were only interested in getting back into power. That's when they sold their granny. They just ran out of grannies to sell.<br /><br />I think Catalans lost their fear (and I think their only real fear was that the Spanish would use military force, not fear of their ability to run their own country) some time ago as a result of things like the unofficial independence referendums. The extent to which it has fallen away has been reflected in the ever-growing margin in favour of independence in opinion polls. I think it will continue so that if a referendum is held, the Yes votes will be weighed, not counted. If Spain manages to block it (which I don't think they can) then the parliament will declare independence instead. There are different ways in which things can play, out but the end result is not in any doubt.<br /><br />-<br /><br />Finally, <a href="http://rueclementmarot.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/catalan-election-results.html" rel="nofollow">this post</a> by Frankly has links for anyone who wants to watch the results unfold. <br /><br />The TV3 exit poll has been released:<br /><br />CiU ... 54-57 ... disappointing but OK<br />ERC ... 20-23 ... absolutely brilliant!<br />PSC ... 16-18 ... oblivion in 3rd, maybe even 4th place<br />PP ... 16-18 ... quite good, for them<br />ICV ... 10-12 ... not too shabbyMHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-28426736346598922622012-11-25T17:15:27.416+00:002012-11-25T17:15:27.416+00:00The secretariat of the ANC looks broad ... and inc...The secretariat of the ANC looks broad ... and includes Miquel Sellarès, one of the founders of CDC. It also includes ERC and SI.<br /><br />I don't believe, like you do MH, that ERC in 2006 really had the heart to believe that independence could be a viable option in the short term, hence the falling back on the 'autodeterminacio' positioning. <br /><br />But of what matter now? New ball game. The political centre of the Spanish state has been debilitated due to the economic crisis whilst continuing its 20 year-long unionist clawback of powers. Catalans may vote for a referendum vote tonight as much for economic reasons as for identitarian ones. Both for many. Fair enough. CDC, ERC, SI see their chance. ICV play along. PSC the rabbit in the headlights. Unio would sell their granny if it were beneficial to them.<br /><br />However, independence as a political option has been legitimated, has become a significant cleavage within society and is no longer a minority sport. Parties shift tack accordingly. Have Catalans tonight lost their fear of political, if not economic, freedom? <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-10420419927777851682012-11-25T14:55:56.907+00:002012-11-25T14:55:56.907+00:00The organisation of the march was done by the Cata...The organisation of the march was done by the Catalan National Assembly:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_National_Assembly<br /><br />Wiki lists the committee membersDewi Harrieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03309285850974349920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-70353787830124222492012-11-25T14:40:54.613+00:002012-11-25T14:40:54.613+00:00Continued
So, from 2007, the focus shifted from t...<i>Continued</i><br /><br />So, from 2007, the focus shifted from the party political sphere to the sphere of civic society. It has been the medium through which the desire for independence has slowly but inexorably been building up. And when, in 2010, the TC (Constitutional Tribunal) finally made its decision to cut back the new SoA, the effect was like a dam bursting. All political parties have been carried along in the flood. It is impossible (in any democracy) to allow people to vote for something but then deny them what they voted for. <br /><br />I'd agree that ERC have not been "driving" events since 2006; at least not in the sense of being in the front seat with everyone else behind them, as has been the case with the SNP in Scotland. There, they want independence; and the difficulty is to get a majority of people in Scotland to agree. <br /><br />Things have been different in Catalunya. No matter how much smaller in scope the 2006 SoA was from what ERC would have liked, it would not have come into being if it wasn't for ERC. That has been the dam behind which public opinion in favour of independence was harnessed; the difficulty was to get a majority of politicians in Catalunya to agree. The 11 September demonstration was like an unleashed wall of water which gave undecided politicians no choice but to either swim with the flow or take a futile stand and be crushed against the rocks.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-33794121804545537682012-11-25T14:40:20.170+00:002012-11-25T14:40:20.170+00:00While I can accept that there are different ways o...While I can accept that there are different ways of reading events, I think your version is quite wide of the mark when it comes to the ERC, 01:18. I'd agree that there has been a "shifting complexity", but it's rubbish to say that ERC hasn't mentioned independence or that it hasn't been at the very forefront of that complexity. This is how I read what's happened over the past decade:<br /><br />In <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Parliament_election,_2003" rel="nofollow">2003</a> ERC got 23 seats in the Catalan parliament, a massive improvement on the 12 they had before. They went into a tripartite left government with the PSC and ICV-EUiA, but the price of their support (the "red line" issue) was a new Statute of Autonomy (SoA) ... something that the PSC could deliver because the PSOE was in power in Madrid. <br /><br />ERC wanted it to be a stepping stone towards independence. But what was eventually delivered fell short of their expectations, and the final wording was actually a compromise hammered out between the PSOE in Madrid (as opposed to the PSC in Catalunya) and CiU, who were in opposition in the Catalan parliament. Now perhaps it was unrealistic to expect the new SoA to go as far as ERC wanted, but they needed to decide how best to play the situation. Instead of a co-ordinated response they actually manged to contradict themselves at every turn. In the Catalan parliament, they voted for the new SoA. In Madrid they voted against it in one house and abstained in the other. Then, when it was presented to the people of Catalunya in a referendum in 2006, they finally got their act together and campaigned against it on the grounds that it would lock Catalunya into Spain permanently rather than be a stepping stone towards the independence they wanted. <br /> <br />The referendum was won and the ERC then withdrew from government, forcing an early election. They fought it on the grounds that the new SoA wasn't anywhere near good enough and sought a mandate for more. They didn't do badly in the elections (losing just two seats) but it certainly wasn't a mandate to go further. If I were to characterize things, it was as if Catalans had said to ERC, "Thanks for all your hard work (for if it wasn't for you, a new SoA wouldn't have happened at all) but we're happy with it and don't want to go any further just yet." <br /><br />It was then that the ERC made what I consider to be their big mistake. They went back, tail between their legs, into the same tripartite left government they had pulled out of ... essentially putting constitutional advancement onto the back burner. It's a similar dilemma to that faced by Plaid Cymru: is our prime purpose to keep pressing for more autonomy and eventual independence, or do we satisfy ourselves with trying to govern Wales within the current constitutional settlement? A lot of people gave up on ERC because of that decision, and they paid a heavy price in the 2010 election, losing more than half their seats. As I read it, the section of Catalan society that wanted independence decided that the political parties they had weren't capable of delivering it. <br /><br /><i>To be continued ... </i> MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-82196498857739997042012-11-25T01:18:02.334+00:002012-11-25T01:18:02.334+00:00I agree with comments on CiU's social platform...I agree with comments on CiU's social platforms over the past 30 years: it is a catch-all party, CDC representing the social democrat element and Unio the Christian-democrat. This, though, didn't just happen out of the blue. Catalonia industrialised much earlier than Castile and therefore the society in which CiU swims, as MH notes, is relatively left-friendly and progressive. <br /><br />MH, however, is somewhat curmudgeonly in depicting CiU as Johnny-Come-Latelies to independence since this was way way off *every* Catalan party's radar until 2010 when the Constitutional Court in Madrid eviscerated the new Catalan Statute: ERC had happily lived in coalition with the PSC and IC-V for 7 years until 2010 and not a sw, bw or mw passed from the lips of ERC's leaders during those years on the topic of independence. Years of bounty them for all. Doing business with Madrid was very much 'in'. The leitmotiv for nationalist parties up to that time had been the ubiquitous 'autodetermination' aka having independence as a policy plank for sometime in the distant future. That all changed with the TC's statute decision and the dawning realisation that a Basque-like 'concert economic' wasn't going to be given, even if Spain could afford it, which it can't. Jordi Pujol's son, Oriol, has got a grip of the CDC element of CiU, is openly independentist, uses this word (Mas doesn't, but rather 'our own state') and is taking on where Pujol Pater left off. However, this has happened in parallel to ERC's statements since 2010 rather than being driven by the latter. So there's shifting complexity in CiU. I'd say that is also true for ERC over the past 10 years. All very natural.<br /><br />I'd love to know the political affiliations of the organisers of the 11 Sept march this year. I'd say CiU figures very heavily among them. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com