tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post1636793889845895876..comments2024-03-27T18:54:46.951+00:00Comments on Syniadau :: The Blog: SortuSyniadauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13876017048168055247noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-81908418633713867602011-03-24T20:07:35.252+00:002011-03-24T20:07:35.252+00:00It is very easy for you people to speak about this...It is very easy for you people to speak about this from wherever you are. You certainly have no idea.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-59410905182845735652011-02-23T15:23:15.918+00:002011-02-23T15:23:15.918+00:00I think these runs are a great idea, Dai. Here...I think these runs are a great idea, Dai. Here's some info on last year's an Rith in Ireland, the next one is due in 2012:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.rith.ie/faq" rel="nofollow">www.rith.ie</a>MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-20989078386727725492011-02-23T15:05:01.280+00:002011-02-23T15:05:01.280+00:00Some interesting points, Anon 18:47.
Let me start...Some interesting points, Anon 18:47.<br /><br />Let me start by repeating that I have no confidence that the court will not make its decision on political rather than judicial grounds. It seems to be clutching at straws to base an argument over some distinction between "reject" and "condemn". No doubt if they said "condemn" you would refuse to legitimize Sortu because they did not say "utterly condemn" ... and if they then said "utterly condemn" you would reject them for not saying "completely and utterly condemn" ... and then not be satisfied until they added "with bells on" (to pick up Dai Dwl's theme) ... and then not for specifying how many bells!<br /><br />The point is that if the Spanish authorities play "silly buggers", they will attract more international criticism. People will see that their motives are not to do with violence, but are purely political.<br /><br />-<br /><br />But I do agree with you (and in fact said) that what happens next will depend on the EAJ-PNV because they are a larger party with a larger power base. They will not be too concerned about what happens to Sortu for the May elections. But they need to be concerned for the 2013 BAC elections. (For others who are reading this, EAJ-PNV were denied the opportunity to form a government because votes for some other nationalist parties were declared void. This probably cost about six seats. The current BAC government is a coalition of the Socialist and right-wing Peoples Party, a coalition as improbable as Labour and the Conservatives forming an alliance to keep Plaid Cymru out of power in Wales, or the SNP out of power in Scotland.) The EAJ-PNV will do almost anything to avoid that happening again. So they will have to come out and take sides over the issue of legitimization ... though perhaps not yet. <br /><br />It's interesting also that you mention CiU in Catalunya, for if anything characterized their approach to last year's elections, it was that they wanted to get back into power much more than they wanted to advance Catalunya's constitutional position. Yes, they will <b>try</b> to get the same sort of financial arrangement with Spain that the BAC enjoys, but I think their chances of getting that are virtually zero. Spain is in so much economic trouble itself that it will continue to use Catalunya as a "cash cow" to help ease its own precarious financial position.<br /><br />It all begs the question, What is Basque and Catalan nationalism for ... if not to push for independence? At least Ibarretxe tried to move things further forward. That's why getting the pro-independence left into mainstream politics is so important. It's a matter of shifting the perspective to seeing independence as a more important issue than the normal left-right issues of short term politics. The ground is very much more advanced in Euskadi than in Catalunya ... for if that were not true, what else could explain the chalk and cheese left and right wings of Spanish politics joining forces in the PSOE-PP coalition to prevent a Basque nationalist government being formed in 2009?MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-90778481960967703262011-02-22T21:19:39.064+00:002011-02-22T21:19:39.064+00:00On a lighter and less political side, this year...On a lighter and less political side, this year's Korrika relay race will be held in April. <br /><br />600,000 people taking part by running a km, sponsoring or organising. It's a 24 hour non-stop relay to raise money to Basque language education. They'll cover about 2,000 km I think over 10 days. Impressive. That's why the Basques are so strong. It's the Big Society with bells on!<br /><br />Korrika: http://www.korrika.org/ <br /><br />There are now similar races in Ireland (an Rith) and Britanny (Redadeg). How about Wales?<br /><br /><br />Dai DwlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-85188090245805760242011-02-22T18:47:30.266+00:002011-02-22T18:47:30.266+00:00MH @ 14:22/3 - I'd say Sortu are going to back...MH @ 14:22/3 - I'd say Sortu are going to back knocked back a couple of years by the Audiencia Nacional because of the 'reject' rather than 'condemn' terrorism formula that the formation currently aligns itself with. This graded distinction is equally as important for state agenda setters as those within the broad Ezker Abertzale movement. The Guardia Civil and public prosecutor are lining up the reports for the AN to judge on in a couple of weeks, so I'd say it's the long grass for the EzkAb. The PNV meanwhile are giving minimum public support to relegitimating the EzkAb - they'll do this when pressed but they ain't going out of their way much since they would rather not have Sortu in the foral elections where the money and power lies (it's the foral governments who send *both* the Basque government and Madrid a negotiated sum). The question for me is not so much what Sortu, or indeed, what the state apparatus do or do not do - although this is palpably important - eyes need to be kept on which end of the pendulum swing the centre-right PNV currently are. Ibarretxe came to power with the sovereigntist PNV Gipuzkoan power base behind him, but the incumbent Urkullu is linked to Bilbao-based banks and Bizkaian PNV regionalism rather than nationalism and much more tepid on any redefining of territorial relations. Like the right-centre CiU in Catalonia, these are the core people to watch in the coming years because they can impact on much larger swathes of public opinion. Now the PNV and CiU aren't historically the best of butties (CiU want the fiscal regime the Basques have) but if a situation were to arise where they were to find it in their common interests to co-operate strategically on territorial and fiscal claims over and above meeting twice a year to fork out the odd couple of million euros to needy schools on both of their northern internal borders ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-28095823569900871632011-02-22T14:23:53.121+00:002011-02-22T14:23:53.121+00:00... continued
What happens then? Well, maybe the...<i>... continued</i><br /><br />What happens then? Well, maybe the mere threat of doing it will convince the Spanish to let them have a referendum. But I think that might be unlikely. So if UDI is declared, what do the Spanish do? Send in the tanks? I doubt it very much. The key is the Basque Autonomous Community's financial arrangements within Spain. They collect their own taxes and only send Madrid a negotiated sum to pay for the central services Spain provides, such a defence. In other words, the Spanish have no economic hold on the BAC ... they can't starve it of money by refusing to pay for schools, hospitals and pensions. Day-to-day life can continue normally. The BAC is the richest part of Spain, so there is no question of them losing out financially.<br /><br />So yes, there'll be a huge political standoff, things will be tense, and there'll be a lot of arguing and sabre rattling; but nobody will be prepared to escalate that to the point of violence. My guess is that the EU will then become the main mediator. A plan will be put in place to hold a confirmatory referendum within about six months, maybe on the same 55% basis as with Montenegro's independence from Serbia. And Spain would not be able to "veto" their membership of the EU ... that was always a red herring. <br /><br />Now I'm not saying that will happen. It's only one possible scenario, and I must stress it's my own. The bigger strategic question is what happens in Navarre. UDI might make it very much harder for Navarre to become a part of a newly independent Euskadi. The Basques in the BAC might first want to use the peace settlement to formally re-unite with Navarre, as this is specifically allowed in the Spanish Constitution if a majority in Navarre vote for it in a referendum. The northern part of Navarre is overwhelmingly Basque, though the southern part is more Castilian. Those who want a united Euskadi see Pamplona as the seat of government, though that may be an offer designed as an incentive for them to say yes. <br /><br />But as things stand now, it doesn't look like there'll be a majority in Navarre that would vote to join the BAC. In the <a href="http://www.elecciones2007.navarra.es/do/res/es/70001.html" rel="nofollow">2007 election</a>, the main party with 42% of the vote was the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navarrese_People's_Union" rel="nofollow">UPN</a>, which is strongly against union. The Basque nationalist parties in coalition (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nafarroa_Bai" rel="nofollow">NA-BAI</a>) only got 24% of the vote, although this was a marked improvement. Perhaps the mood will change as a result of a peace settlement, but it might take a good few years.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-9140336782997239372011-02-22T14:22:04.616+00:002011-02-22T14:22:04.616+00:00Is the glass half full or half empty, Anon 08:26? ...Is the glass half full or half empty, Anon 08:26? I wouldn't say the plan is going nowhere. It is slow, but it is very carefully choreographed and, so far at least, no-one has put a foot wrong. And yes, the International Contact Group is not mediating, it is facilitating. But has said it would be ready to mediate if called upon to do so, though Spain doesn't think it needs it.<br /><br />What has happened is that Sortu has effectively divorced itself from ETA's violence, so the key now is recognition of Sortu as a legitimate political party. The ball is in the Spanish court, literally. But although Spanish courts have been known to make blatantly political decisions, it does appear that Sortu's "statutes" (what we would call constitution) are very well defined so as to give no legal grounds for refusing to legitimize it. Crucially, Batasuna was declared to be a terrorist organization by the EU ... but it is almost impossible to imagine the EU doing this for Sortu, meaning that the Spanish would find themselves isolated if they held out. The Spanish State is in a very tricky financial position and will need all the help it can get from the EU, so it will not be in a strong position to hold out. So I am fairly confident that behind the scenes international pressure will help get Sortu recognized. <br /><br />Assuming it is, the pro-independent left will have a political platform. Now I agree with you that Spain isn't going to allow the Basques to hold a referendum on independence, but there would be nothing to stop the Basque Parliament declaring independence if that was the will of a majority of its members. That is what Reagrupament tried to do in the Catalan election last year. They failed, but the Spanish didn't stop them. They can't stop people standing for election on whatever platform they choose. <br /><br />Now obviously Sortu won't get a majority if they are allowed to stand in the Basque Parliament election in 2013. They would get 15%, maybe 20% on a wave of optimism. So everything will depend on the EAJ-PNV. They can expect to get at least 35% of the vote (and smaller parties like Aralar and Eusko Alkartasuna might expect some 10%, though a lot of their vote is likely to shift to Sortu). So if EAJ-PNV come out in favour of independence there is a very real chance of them making a unilateral declaration of independence.<br /><br /><i>... to be continued</i>MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-40385244745841322742011-02-22T14:20:11.843+00:002011-02-22T14:20:11.843+00:00The subtitles are in Catalan, Anon 21:58 ... thoug...The subtitles are in Catalan, Anon 21:58 ... though that did make it a bit easier. Shame, as most of the interviews were in English and the voice over masked what they were saying. But I got the drift.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-62246359284707756902011-02-22T08:26:02.420+00:002011-02-22T08:26:02.420+00:00MN - I hope you're right but I don't share...MN - I hope you're right but I don't share your optimism, nor do the Basques I speak to.<br /><br />The Spanish Cortes said that Ibarretxe's peaceful 'free association' plan of 2004 was uncostitutional - and that was short of independence and it asked for a referendum before hand. The Spanish state will procrastinate and not coply with any international ruling. They will be backed at the UN by France and Russia and China for obvious reasons. <br /><br />They will use the 'uncostitutional' argument over and over - giving the impression that independence is some dodgy thing. In this they will be backed by the British Labour party. Elunied Morgan Labour MEP said as so a few years ago when she also ridiculed the idea of Welsh and Scottish independence 'because Spain won't allow it'.<br /><br />I'm not as optimistic as you are MH. <br /><br />I also think Spain would send in the tanks but will make sure that there will be no need to be so blatant about it. They've outlawed one party and not a whisper was raised in Europe - they can do it again.<br /><br /><br /><br />The Currin plan is going nowhere - the Spanish have refused any international mediation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-80489457442835211452011-02-21T21:58:02.383+00:002011-02-21T21:58:02.383+00:00For more background on the [predominantly] South A...For more background on the [predominantly] South African-N Irish-Basque mediatory arch formed around Currin, see the hour-long subtitled documentary 'Pluja Seca' from Catalan Television (TV3). Interesting also the history of SAfrican global peace paradiplomacy leading up to its engagement with the BC: http://www.tv3.cat/videos/3362870/Pluja-seca-Mediadors-internacionals-al-Pais-BascAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-28795312007838651952011-02-21T19:37:33.724+00:002011-02-21T19:37:33.724+00:00People might find this website useful for keeping ...People might find this website useful for keeping track of events from the perspective of the broad nationalist left:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.basquepeaceprocess.info" rel="nofollow">www.basquepeaceprocess.info</a><br /><br />The video in "Recent Videos" from Al Jazeera (made in the middle of January this year) is quite informative.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-62867986535177504642011-02-21T14:44:06.023+00:002011-02-21T14:44:06.023+00:00Great analysis. The Spanish State may have the leg...Great analysis. The Spanish State may have the legal means to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Basque voters, but public opinion is the single most powerful force in the world- far more powerful than their imperialist constitution. In practice the Spanish State won't be able to keep the Abertzale movement down now that it is fully committed to peaceful and democratic means. Violence gave the Spanish State an excuse to violate democracy- the excuse will now be alot harder for them to find or justify.Welsh Ramblingshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17585109264200933570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-51179159052495333262011-02-21T14:00:30.415+00:002011-02-21T14:00:30.415+00:00I suppose it's fairly obvious that my sympathi...I suppose it's fairly obvious that my sympathies are with those wanting an independent Euskadi, Anon. But whatever might or might not have justified the violence before, I agree with you that it serves no purpose now and despair at the actions of ETA in recent years which did nothing but harm to the hopes for a peaceful settlement. But attitudes are ingrained on both sides, and even though intransigence by the Spanish authorities is wrong, it is understandable. <br /><br />You say: <i>"So, when ETA said that Spain would never allow the Basques to declare independence by a peaceful democratic vote - they were right and every one in the Basque country knew this."</i><br /><br />But "never" is a word that is usually inappropriate, for using it gives no-one any hope of resolving the political conflict. I agree that it is unlikely that Spain will willingly allow independence; but if the desire for independence can be expressed through the ballot box, then it becomes less likely that Spain will resort to violence to stop Euskadi becoming independent. It may well still be "legal" under the Spanish Constitution for them to send in troops and tanks against thousands of unarmed civilians ... but can you imagine them actually doing it? I can't. At least not while Spain remains a democracy and is part of the EU. So that part of the equation has become <b>as</b> redundant as the use of violence by ETA. We have to reach the situation where armed violence on <b>both</b> sides is out of the question.<br /><br />I could probably write a whole post on the positive steps that are being taken in the international community to resolve the situation. Especially the work of Brian Currin which resulted in the <a href="http://www.n-va.be/files/default/generated/blikvanger/endorsers_basque_peacestatement.pdf" rel="nofollow">Brussels Declaration</a> of March 2010. He was himself quite upbeat about these latest developments, as in <a href="http://www.eitb.com/news/politics/detail/600884/currin-says-peace-the-basque-country-could-be-just-two-years/" rel="nofollow">this article</a>, filmed just after he gave evidence to a committee at Westminster last week. <br /><br />The crux of the matter is that now the Spanish (and French) have largely won the military struggle against ETA, they perhaps think that the political aspiration for independence has similarly been defeated, or can similarly be defeated. For that reason, they might not see the need for international help. But it would seem that things are happening behind the scenes, and I think there are good reasons for optimism.<br /><br />A lot will depend on the Spanish Supreme Court decision. It is sad that things will be kicked into the long grass until after the municipal elections in May, however the much more significant election will be to the Basque Parliament in 2013. So when Brian Currin spoke of a two year timescale, it seems clear that legitimization in time for the 2013 election is the more realistic aim.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-22457459293009255662011-02-21T09:33:05.155+00:002011-02-21T09:33:05.155+00:00ETA was the other side of the Spanish state coin. ...ETA was the other side of the Spanish state coin. The Spanish constitution allows the military to keep the integrity of the state - that is, it is legal in Spain for tanks to go into Barcelona or Bilbao should the Catalans or Basques vote for indepenedence. So, when ETA said that Spain would never allow the Basques to declaire independence by a peaceful democractic vote - they were right and every one in the Basque country knew this. It was then a difference of opinion if it was worth having an armed conflict about someting which is, for the time being, a largly hypothetical constitutional debate.<br /><br />So, now, ETA have seen they're actually counter productive and yes, the Spanish state has beaten them, we have a pro independence (to add to the other three or so, PNV and EA etc) and it still isn't good enough. <br /><br />It makes you think that the Spanish would pefer to have ETA rather than peace. And that's it. The Basques now see they are stronger without guns than they are with them. <br /><br />I guess, the Spanish 'deep state' would wish ETA will come back. They're just fishing about for excuses now. If people who served in Franco's government (the former leader of the Galician autonomous communuty to name just a few) then surely, some people who also have a violent path, or who don't personally, can also come into the mainstream democratic process.<br /><br />Spanish hypocricy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com