tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post1106526685511380449..comments2024-03-27T18:54:46.951+00:00Comments on Syniadau :: The Blog: Analysis ... Mid and West WalesSyniadauhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13876017048168055247noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-16278513686692875142011-05-04T10:31:14.933+01:002011-05-04T10:31:14.933+01:00I've just had a chance to read Blog Banw, and ...I've just had a chance to read Blog Banw, and I'd recommend it to others:<br /><br /><a href="http://blogbanw.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">blogbanw.blogspot.com</a><br /><br />It would make things very interesting if Angela Burns has given up the fight in Carmarthen West. I certainly don't doubt Nerys' and Plaid's hard work and effort. Yet I do remember a very similar sort of effort being put into Ceredigion last May, with people being called from campaigning in other constituencies all over Wales to help out. Effort doesn't guarantee success, and people in the thick of it sometimes lose perspective.<br /><br />One point I've tried to hammer home in these analyses is that the result in individual constituencies is usually less important than the overall regional vote. Getting new people to vote Plaid on the regional ballot in unpromising places will be just as important, and maybe even more so, than putting all our effort into winning the last hundred votes in a particular constituency. The law of diminishing returns applies.<br /><br />The nightmare scenario would be for us to have put effort into places like Carmarthen West at the expense of, say, Llanelli. If we think Llanelli is tight when we are defending a 14 point lead, it seems odd to at the same time think we have a good chance of winning a seat from third place. On the other hand, if we are convinced that Llanelli is safe, it would make sense to divert effort and resources to Carmarthen West. <br /><br />On the whole, I think that effort is more effective when used locally. The only exception is for "prominent people" whose visit to a constituency will attract media interest. The problem comes in not realizing the distinction, for it is often those same prominent people who direct campaign resources.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-33758065196972788482011-05-03T22:58:37.288+01:002011-05-03T22:58:37.288+01:00You think? Annonymous based on what though? If you...You think? Annonymous based on what though? If your basing it on the YOUGOV polls I would disagree because especially in an area such as Carmarthen West south pembrokeshire local issues are very significant, this assembly election will go down for its local campaigns rather than national ones, therefore IMO not saying Im right or wrong but you can't relly on polls conducted on a national basis for these key marginals.Blog Banwhttp://blogbanw.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-4036207972038277652011-05-03T22:03:03.947+01:002011-05-03T22:03:03.947+01:00Sorry, Blog Banw. I know that Plaid's presence...Sorry, Blog Banw. I know that Plaid's presence is very visible in CW&SP, but Nerys really only has the proverbial snowball's chance of winning.<br /><br />Plaid's vote will fall to below 25% in CW&SP on Thursday, with Labour and the Conservatives slugging it out for 1st place at around 35% each.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-52428049769241607192011-05-03T19:59:09.522+01:002011-05-03T19:59:09.522+01:00what we dont realise is what taking caerphilly cou...what we dont realise is what taking caerphilly could do the chances of a labour majority and to a smaller exten carmarthen, plaid taking caerphilly would hurt them extrmely badly,<br /><br />though i doubt they would win in caerphilly, to that extent keeping hold of llanelli and aberconwy would be nothing short of a miracleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-64509978806856070082011-05-03T19:48:34.484+01:002011-05-03T19:48:34.484+01:00I'd love Nerys to win, but I'm not confide...I'd love Nerys to win, but I'm not confident she will. It certainly isn't a mistake for us to put so much effort into trying. <br /><br />Winning Carmarthen West would give us a definite gain. Other marginal seats such as Caerffili or Aberconwy would be good to win, but would not make so much difference because of the regional list.MHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09329059309196746446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-70334376904731595172011-05-03T18:30:46.319+01:002011-05-03T18:30:46.319+01:00I have to disgaree on Nerys Evans chances, have yo...I have to disgaree on Nerys Evans chances, have you been down to the constituency yourself and noted the Plaid Presence compared to that of the Labour and Tory party? it's massive. I will be blogging on it later.Blog Banwhttp://blogbanw.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985080357558043054.post-11994634948735141122011-05-03T18:09:52.994+01:002011-05-03T18:09:52.994+01:00Interesting!
So you therefore think that Nerys Eva...Interesting!<br />So you therefore think that Nerys Evans will not be in the next Assembly?<br /><br />Do you then think that Plaid's tactics were wrong; in that they have concentrated so much on this seat (both with coverage and money) and they should have concentrated on other marginals?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com